Consumer Price Index: Indonesian Inflation Mild in November; FY Inflation Possibly Below 3%
Also in the month of November 2019 Indonesian inflation was mild. Based on the latest data of Statistics Indonesia (or BPS), consumer prices accelerated by 0.14 percent month-on-month (m/m) in November, the lowest pace of November inflation in many years.
In fact, Indonesia’s full-year 2019 inflation could even stay below 3 percent year-on-year (y/y) provided prices remain under control in the last month of the year. The Christmas and New Year celebrations traditionally cause some additional inflationary pressures in December as consumption rises. However, based on the track-record of the government December inflation has been maintained well below 1 percent (m/m) in recent years. As such, it is safe to assume that full-year inflation will be around 2.90 - 3.00 percent (y/y).
Inflation in Indonesia:
| Month | M/M Growth 2018 |
M/M Growth 2019 |
| January | 0.62% | 0.32% |
| February | 0.17% | -0.08% |
| March | 0.20% | 0.11% |
| April | 0.10% | 0.44% |
| May | 0.21% | 0.68% |
| June | 0.59% | 0.55% |
| July | 0.28% | 0.31% |
| August | -0.05% | 0.12% |
| September | -0.18% | -0.27% |
| October | 0.28% | 0.02% |
| November | 0.27% | 0.14% |
| December | 0.62% | |
| Total | 3.13% | 2.37% |
Headline Consumer Price Index of Indonesia:
| Month | M/M Growth 2013 |
M/M Growth 2014 |
M/M Growth 2015 |
M/M Growth 2016 |
M/M Growth 2017 |
| January | 1.03% | 1.07% | -0.24% | 0.51% | 0.97% |
| February | 0.75% | 0.26% | -0.36% | -0.09% | 0.23% |
| March | 0.63% | 0.08% | 0.17% | 0.19% | -0.02% |
| April | -0.10% | -0.02% | 0.36% | -0.45% | 0.09% |
| May | -0.03% | 0.16% | 0.50% | 0.24% | 0.39% |
| June | 1.03% | 0.43% | 0.54% | 0.66% | 0.69% |
| July | 3.29% | 0.93% | 0.93% | 0.69% | 0.22% |
| August | 1.12% | 0.47% | 0.39% | -0.02% | -0.07% |
| September | -0.35% | 0.27% | -0.05% | 0.22% | 0.13% |
| October | 0.09% | 0.47% | -0.08% | 0.14% | 0.01% |
| November | 0.12% | 1.50% | 0.21% | 0.47% | 0.20% |
| December | 0.55% | 2.46% | 0.96% | 0.42% | 0.71% |
| Total | 8.38% | 8.36% | 3.35% | 3.02% | 3.61% |
Source: Statistics Indonesia (BPS)
Inflation in Indonesia and Central Bank (BI) Target:
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | |
| Inflation (annual % change) |
8.4 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 3.6 | 3.1 | |
| BI Target (annual % change) |
4.5 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | |
| Inflation (annual % change) |
9.8 | 4.8 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 8.4 |
| BI Target (annual % change) |
5.0 | 4.5 | 5.0 | 5.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
Source: Bank Indonesia
Read the article in the November 2019 edition of our monthly report. You can purchase this report by sending an email to [email protected] or a WhatsApp message to the following number: +62(0)8788.410.6944
