Local Elections Indonesia: Run-Up to the 2019 National Elections

Around 160 million people are eligible to vote in Wednesday's local elections, a figure that represents more than half of the Indonesian population. It is very interesting to learn whether the majority of voters (per region) will throw their support behind candidates from the "Joko Widodo coalition" or the "Prabowo Subianto coalition". After all, it is assumed that the 2019 presidential election will become another battle between Widodo and Subianto (both men battled in the 2014 election which was narrowly won by Widodo).

However, not in all regions there exists this Widodo-Prabowo distinction. In East Java for example, Subianto's Gerindra party and Widodo's PDI-P party support the same candidate (Saifullah Yusuf). Moreover, if we take a look at the opinion polls for the West Java election, then we see that the candidates that are supported by Gerindra (Sudrajat) and PDI-P (TB Hasanuddin) seem to have a very small to chance of winning the election. In West Java Deddy Mizwar (supported by Golkar and PD) and Ridwan Kamil (supported by PPP, NasDem, PKB and Hanura) are believed to have much bigger chances.

West Java is often named the key province in Indonesian elections as more than 30 million people are eligible to vote here. It is also a province where Islam-based political parties are dominant (contrary to the secular parties that stress the importance of pluralism). Other issues in this province are the high unemployment rate (8.16 percent versus the national average of 5.13 percent) which may make it difficult for Widodo to point at his economic track record when campaigning in the context of the 2019 presidential election.

But although those West Java candidates that are supported by PDI-P and Gerindra may lose the local battle tomorrow, the West Java election could still play a role in the selection of the vice-presidential candidates for the 2019 election. If the Golkar or PD-backed candidate wins this local election, then both parties gain bargaining power to propose a vice-presidential candidate from their circles because it could boost chances for the presidential candidate to the battle in West Java. Widodo could consider to select a vice-presidential candidate that does well in West Java because the incumbent president lost the battle in this province in the 2014 election.

On Monday (25/06) the Indonesian government announced that Wednesday 27 June 2018 has been declared a national public holiday (to accommodate the local elections). The Indonesia Stock Exchange, however, confirmed that it will operate normally.

Tomorrow, Indonesia Investments will carefully watch the elections and provide regular updates throughout the day.

Opinion Polls - West Java Gubernatorial Election 2018:

Candidates	Political Support	Litbang Kompas	Charta Politika	Poltracking	Indikator    Politik
Ridwan Kamil, UU Ruzhanul	PPP, NasDem, PKB, Hanura	40.4%	37.3%	42.0%	40.9%
TB Hasanuddin, Anton Charliyan	PDI-P	4.1%	7.8%	5.5%	2.7%
Sudrajat, Ahmad Syaikhu	Gerindra, PKS, PAN	11.4%	7.6%	10.7%	5.3%
Deddy Mizwar, Dedi Mulyadi	Golkar, PD	39.1%	34.5%	35.2%	35.6%

Opinion Polls - Central Java Gubernatorial Election 2018:

Candidates	Political Support	Litbang Kompas	Charta Politika	SMRC	Indikator    Politik
Ganjar Pranowo, Taj Yasin	PDI-P, PPP, NasDem, PD	76.4%	70.5%	70.1%	72.4%
Sudirman Said, Ida Fauziyah	Gerindra, PKB, PAN, PKS	15.0%	13.6%	22.6%	21.0%

Opinion Polls - East Java Gubernatorial Election 2018:

Candidates	Political Support	Litbang Kompas	Charta Politika	Poltracking	Populi Center
Khofifah Indar P, Emil Dardak	PD, PPP, Golkar, Hanura, NasDem, PAN	48.6%	44.6%	51.8%	44.0%
Saifullah Yusuf, Puti Guntur Soekarno	Gerindra, PDI-P, PKB, PKS	45.6%	43.8%	43.5%	38.8%

Opinion Polls - North Sumatra Gubernatorial Election 2018:

Candidates	Political Support	Indo Barometer	LSI
Edy Rahmayadi, Musa Rajekshah	Golkar, Gerindra, PKS, PAN, Nasdem	36.9%	45.5%
Djarot Saiful Hidayat, Sihar Sitorus	PDI-P, PPP	37.8%	34.7%

Poll Indonesia Investments:

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