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Today's Headlines Steel Consumption
The Indonesian Iron & Steel Industry Association (IISIA) says Indonesia is in big need of investment in the steel industry in order to expand the nation's steel production capacity. In the years ahead, steel demand is expected to rise strongly in Indonesia on the back of construction and infrastructure projects. Without investment, Indonesia will become increasingly dependent on steel imports.
The price of hot rolled coil (HRC) steel in Indonesia jumped 20 percent to USD $600 per ton in the first quarter of 2017, from USD $500 per ton in the same quarter one year earlier. This price growth is encouraged by the rising global steel price, a trend that is expected to continue in the remainder of 2017. Based on data from MEsteel, a Middle East b2b steel portal, the price of the benchmark HRC stood at USD $545 per ton in March 2017, up 49 percent from USD $365 per ton in the same month one year ago.
Sales of steel in Indonesia are expected to grow 7 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 15 million tons in 2017, from an estimated 14 million tons of steel sales this year. This growth is attributed to rising infrastructure development in Indonesia and the lower gas price (which is expected to be a reason for the nation's steel manufacturers to boost output). Purwono Widodo, Director for International Relations of the Indonesian Iron and Steel Association (IISIA), said steel sales in Indonesia fell in 2015 but rebounded in 2016.
Steel consumption in Indonesia is expected to rise to 13-14 million tons in 2016, from 11.3 million tons in the preceding year. Growth is supported by infrastructure development in Indonesia. Data from the Southeast Asia Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI) shows that steel consumption in Indonesia rose 11 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 6.4 million tons in the first half of 2016. In fact, many local companies are currently buying steel to fill their warehouses as the steel price tends to be highest in the January-February period.
The Indonesian Iron and Steel Association (IISIA) predicts that steel sales in Indonesia will grow nearly 9 percent (y/y) to 12.5 million tons in 2016, from 11.5 million tons in 2015, on the back of new infrastructure projects. IISIA Director for International Relations Purwono Widodo adds that the market share of locally-produced steel is expected to rise from 40 percent to 60 percent. This is a positive development because the steel market in Indonesia has been dominated by imports (mostly from China).
Indonesia imports between 6.5 - 7.5 million tons of steel each year to meet domestic demand. Given that Indonesia's steel exports are insignificant it therefore implies that steel is one of the components that puts heavy pressure on the country's trade balance. The steel deficit of Indonesia is estimated to reach USD $7 billion this year. Indonesia requires some 12.5 million tons of steel per year for its construction projects. However, the domestic steel industry can only supply about 6 million tons of steel.
After a three-year slowdown, the steel industry of Indonesia is showing some positive developments supported by government-led infrastructure projects in Indonesia and the rising global steel price. The price for (benchmark) hot rolled coil has surged 47 percent since the start of 2016 to USD $485 per ton (May 2016 delivery). In late 2015 the price of hot rolled coil was as low as USD $265 per ton. Moreover, the mandatory usage of locally-manufactured steel for the infrastructure projects will have a positive impact on Indonesia's steel industry.
Indonesia's steel and iron producers urge the government to limit imports of steel into Indonesia as these imports are a burden on the domestic steel industry. Data from the Indonesian Iron and Steel Industry Association (IISIA) show that steel imports from China - the world's largest steel producer - into Indonesia jumped 94 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 3 million tons in 2015. This surge is particularly caused by foreign contractors working on infrastructure projects in Indonesia.
Demand for steel in Indonesia is expected to rise in 2016 on enhanced infrastructure development. However, the majority of steel - approximately 60 percent of total demand in Indonesia - is still being imported from abroad (primarily China). Gusti Putu Suryawirawan, Director for Base Metal Industries at Indonesia's Industry Ministry, said the government is eager to support the domestic steel manufacturing industry in order to avert further domination of foreign manufactured steel on the Indonesian market.
The overall capacity utilization of Indonesia's steel industry could grow to 80 percent from 50 percent currently. However, it will require government support. Hidayat Triseputro, Executive Director of the Indonesian Iron and Steel Industry Association (IISIA), is optimistic this target can be achieved as the government's push for infrastructure development is showing positive signs (in the second half of 2015 there have been more groundbreaking ceremonies for large government-led infrastructure projects across the country).
Latest Columns Steel Consumption
Steel pipe and tube manufacturer Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (Spindo), which has the largest steel pipe production capacity among manufacturers in Indonesia, is expected to show solid corporate earnings in the period ahead as the company bought raw materials for its production process when the hot-rolled coil (HRC) price was near its lowest at USD $265 per ton. Investa Saran Mandiri expects that Spindo's earnings will improve markedly starting from the second quarter of 2016 as the HRC price has risen to USD $485 per ton in May 2016.
The price of steel has surged 20 percent to USD $365 per ton in April 2016 from USD $305 per ton at the start of the year. The primary reason for the higher steel price is China's plan to curtail the country's installed steel production capacity by a further 150 million tons over the next five years. In recent years the steel price has dropped significantly due to the global oversupply, mainly originating from the chronic steel oversupply in China where domestic demand declined amid the nation's economic slowdown.
Domestic steel sales in Indonesia are expected to rise 6 percent y/y to 15.1 million tons in 2014. Meanwhile, the global average steel price has been USD $536 per ton this year, implying that the market value of Indonesian steel sales is to reach USD $8 billion this year. In recent years, the country’s steel sales have been rising on development of infrastructure, defense industry, and manufacturing. The sales are expected to continue rising in the years ahead due to commitment of the government to boost infrastructure development.
