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Today's Headlines Mining
On 6 July 2023 Indonesia Investments released the June 2023 edition of its monthly report. In the report we present a number of analyses of topics (all related to the economy, politics and social matters) that were relevant in Indonesia in the month of June 2023.
The Indonesian government plans to allow an earlier submission of a request for the extension of mining concessions. Stakeholders say that this would considerably strengthen the investment climate in Indonesia's mining sector, specifically the coal mining industry, on the back of improved legal certainty.
In the first three quarters of 2018, Indonesia's total national coal production reached 319.08 million tons, or nearly 63 percent of the government's full-year 2018 target (set at 506.9 million tons), according to the latest data from the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry.
The Indonesian government took another major step forward in becoming the majority stakeholder (through state-owned mining holding company Indonesia Asahan Aluminium, or Inalum) of mining giant Freeport Indonesia that operates the lucrative Grasberg mine in Papua.
After the much publicized signing by the Indonesian government and US mining giant Freeport McMoRan of the Heads of Agreement regarding the sale of a stake in Freeport Indonesia (the operator of the lucrative Grasberg mine in Papua) on 12 July 2018, we have not heard much about the deal that is valued at USD $3.85 billion.
Although Astra International, one of Indonesia's biggest diversified conglomerates, has been affected by subdued car sales in Indonesia in recent years, the company remains comfortably within the top ten of biggest listed companies in terms of market capitalization on the Indonesia Stock Exchange.
Local banks in Indonesia remain hesitant to disburse loans to companies that are engaged in Indonesia's mining sector due to the high degree of bad debt in this sector. Hence, credit disbursement to the country's mining sector continues to shrink. On the one hand, it is positive that Indonesia's banking sector becomes less dependent on the volatile movement of mining commodity prices.
Coal demand remains high, particularly due to robust demand from China, the world's largest coal importer. This brings the projection for the full-year 2018 coal price to the range of USD $98.50 - $107.00 per metric ton. So far this year the coal price (ICE NewCastle Coal January 2018) surged around 4 percent, while in full-year 2017 the price had surged 57.09 percent.
The rising coal price is a great boost for the corporate earnings of coal mining companies as well as the share prices of those companies that are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. Newcastle Coal Futures (January 2018 delivery) touched USD $97.10 per metric ton at the end of last week, up 26 percent so far this year. Meanwhile, prices of energy commodities are expected to rise further in the remainder of the year.
Production and sales of heavy equipment in Indonesia is recovering more markedly in 2017 on the back of rising activity in the country's mining and construction sectors. Between 2012 and 2015 sales of heavy equipment plunged sharply in Indonesia. In 2016 a modest recovery was seen. This year, the recovery of Indonesia's heavy equipment sector is progressing at a faster pace.
Latest Columns Mining
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set royalties for all types of coal at 13.5 percent (of net sales) as part of a revision of Government Regulation No. 9 - 2012 on Tariff and Types of Non-Tax Revenue. Currently, the percentage of royalty depends on the quality of the coal that is extracted as well as the type of permit that is issued to the coal miner. Apart from higher coal royalties, the Indonesian government also proposes a windfall profits tax in case there is a sharp upward price correction.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) believes that Indonesia's recently introduced ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, in effect since 12 January 2014, will result in slowing economic growth in several regions in the eastern part of Indonesia as these regions are main sources of mineral production. Doddy Zulverdi, Head of the Economic Assessment Group in Bank Indonesia's Department of Economic and Monetary Policy, said that Sulawesi and Kalimantan will post slowing economic growth this year.
Statistics Indonesia (BPS), a non-departmental government institute, expects that Indonesia's trade balance will post a deficit of around USD $4 billion in 2014. The key question is whether increased manufacturing and agricultural exports can replace reduced raw mineral exports. The forecast of BPS is approximately similar to the country's trade deficit in 2013. Last year, Southeast Asia's largest economy recorded a deficit of USD $4.06 billion as the total value of exports amounted to USD $182.57 billion, while imports reached USD $186.63 billion.
The BKPM announced that three processing and mineral concentrate refineries (smelters) are in the construction phase and expected to be ready for production in Indonesia this year. Two of the three smelters will process and purify iron ore while the third will process bauxite ore into chemical grade alumina. The three smelters are owned by Indonesia Chemical Alumina. This company, a joint venture between Aneka Tambang (Antam) and Japan, operates in West Kalimantan.
On Sunday (12/01), one of the most important new laws in the recent history of Indonesia came in force. Mining Law Nr.4/2009, which prohibits the export of unprocessed minerals from Southeast Asia's largest economy, was implemented. However, it was not implemented in its original form. The president of Indonesia, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, signed a last-minute regulation which softens the impact of the new law by allowing mining companies to continue exports of copper, manganese, zinc, lead and iron ore concentrate until 2017.
Indonesia's ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, which is scheduled to take effect on 12 January 2014, is expected to lead to a temporary slowdown of Indonesia's total exports and thus will put more pressure on the country's current account deficit. Despite two consecutive months with trade surpluses (October and November 2013), Indonesia's wide current account deficit is still a concern to investors as well as the government although the deficit has shown an easing trend in recent quarters.
After having reported yesterday (26/12) that Indonesia's ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, stipulated in Mining Law No.4/2009 (which is set to become in force from 12 January 2014), may be delayed, more and more signs are pointing towards a postponement of this law. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jero Wacik, said that the government is considering to delay the implementation of the law by two or three years as the ban will cause increased unemployment and the cease of mining operations.
Asep Sugiharta, an official at the Ministry of Forestry, said that a new bill has been submitted to Indonesia's parliament (DPR) which is expected to open up the potential for geothermal power development in Indonesia. Currently, geothermal exploitation is lawfully defined as a 'mining activity' (Law No. 27 2003) and therefore prohibited to be conducted in protected forest and conservation areas (Law No. 41 1999), even though geothermal mining activities have a relatively small impact on the environment (compared to other mining activities).
Starting from 12 January 2014, the export of all mineral-ores are banned in Indonesia. This controversial new policy, stipulated by the 2009 Mining Law (on Minerals and Coal Mining), was agreed upon by the nine fractions in Commission VII of the Indonesian parliament (DPR). Through this new law, the government intends to increase the value of exports while reducing dependence on raw exports and thus becoming less vulnerable to price downswings on the global commodities market.
The Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index which is also known as the IHSG) gained 0.53 percent on Friday (29/11) and ended on 4,256.43 points. Today's trading day was relatively quiet with a transaction value of only IDR 3.30 trillion (USD $276.50 million). Foreign net buying of Indonesian shares supported the IHSG index to end this month's last trading day on a positive note. Sectors that performed well were agriculture (+2.18 percent), construction (+1.27 percent), and mining (+0.99 percent).
