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Today's Headlines Infrastructure Development
After seeing the World Economic Forum (WEF)'s Global Competitiveness Report 2017-2018, Indonesian construction companies gained optimism that the improved ranking of Indonesia in terms of infrastructure competitiveness will translate to more private sector involvement in the country's infrastructure sector.
The government of Indonesia needs to be more aggressive and innovative to find new sources to fund its ambitious infrastructure development program. To achieve its infrastructure targets, the government will need to find ways to entice the private sector because public funds are limited. So far, however, the private sector is hesitant to engage in capital-intensive and long-term investment in a country where the investment climate is not optimal.
Jean-Claude Trichet, president of the European Central Bank (ECB) from 2003 to 2011, says the strategy of Indonesian President Joko Widodo to boost overall economic growth (and social development) in Southeast Asia's largest economy through infrastructure development is the correct strategy. Although this strategy requires time, it will result in structural long-term growth. Trichet spoke at an international seminar in Jakarta, themed "Challenges to Global Economy", organized by the Indonesian Deposit Insurance Company (LPS) to mark its 11th anniversary.
There are 30 projects that have been selected as priority infrastructure projects in Indonesia for the period 2016-2019. In total, all these projects together will require some IDR 5,519 trillion (approx. US $415 billion) worth of investment. However, the Indonesian government (including state-owned enterprises and regional governments) can only come up with IDR 1,400 trillion, or 26 percent of the required funds. The remainder therefore needs to be covered by the private sector. As such, the key for success is fruitful cooperation between the private and public sector (for example through public-private partnerships).
Stakeholders in Indonesia's property sector may regret to learn that Indonesia's House of Representatives (DPR) decided to postpone deliberations on the tax amnesty bill until (at least) April 2016. This tax amnesty bill, originally planned to be implemented in early 2016, offers attractive tax rates to those tax evaders who declare untaxed wealth and repatriate their funds to Indonesia. If implemented in early 2016, then the bill was estimated to generate up to USD $4.4 billion in additional tax revenue in 2016. Meanwhile, part of repatriated funds would find their way into the nation's property sector.
Sales of trucks in Indonesia fell 30.2 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 5,555 units in January 2016 from 7,918 units in the same month one year earlier. This weaker sales figure indicates that the market for trucks in Indonesia remains subdued. According to the latest data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), sales of all types of trucks fell with the exception of heavy trucks. Heavy trucks, used for mining, agriculture and infrastructure development, rose slightly to 518 units in January 2016.
Indonesian contractors involved in the development of infrastructure projects that have been declared 'national strategic projects' still see difficulty in realization of these projects despite the implementation of Presidential Instruction No. 1/2016 on the Acceleration of the Implementation of National Strategic Projects, signed on 8 January 2016 by Indonesian President Joko Widodo. This presidential instruction orders all relevant ministries and institutions to support the acceleration of the country's national strategic projects. By 2019 these projects - 225 in total - have to be completed.
Although Indonesian President Joko 'Jokowi' Widodo pledged to boost infrastructure development across Indonesia, government spending on infrastructure projects was sluggish during his first year in office due to budgetary and organizational reforms (including cutting the energy subsidies). A positive sign, however, is that government spending on infrastructure development and the number of groundbreaking ceremonies for infrastructure projects rose in the second half of 2015 as reforms were completed.
Although the Indonesian government is having difficulty to enhance infrastructure spending, a statement from Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) Chairman Franky Sibarani conveyed a more positive message. On Monday (20/07), Sibarani announced that since October 2014 the BKPM issued about IDR 335 trillion (approx. USD $25 billion) worth of investment licenses for infrastructure projects, triple the figure from the same period one year earlier, implying that President Joko Widodo’s promotional efforts have had success.
Indonesia’s rapidly growing population in combination with robust economic growth and underinvestment in infrastructure development has resulted in the country’s current lack of quality and quantity of infrastructure. This situation causes a steep increase in logistics costs and blocks efforts to develop and realize national and regional economic potentials (an efficient logistics system is crucial for socioeconomic development of Indonesia). However, government spending on infrastructure development is set to start soon.
Latest Columns Infrastructure Development
The controversial Batang power plant in Central Java is expected to be completed in 2020 now all land acquisition disputes have been resolved. This USD $4.2 billion power plant experienced a long delay as about a dozen of local farmers were reluctant to sell their land to the developers of the project. In February 2016 Indonesia's Supreme Court ruled in favor of the project developers. Indonesian President Joko Widodo is a supporter of this project.
Approaching the end of 2016 it is interesting to take a look whether the Indonesian government achieved its target in terms of infrastructure development. In this column we zoom in on toll road construction. Before 2016 started the central government - under the leadership of President Joko Widodo - targeted to see the construction of 136 kilometers of new toll roads this year. However, two weeks before the end of 2016 only 44 kilometers of new toll roads have been developed this year, achieving only 32 percent of the target.
Infrastructure is the artery of the economy. Blocked arteries are life threatening. Similarly, when there is a lack of adequate infrastructure within the economy (whether in terms of quality or quantity) the economy will run in a highly inefficient manner due to high logistics costs, uncompetitive businesses (as the costs of doing business rise significantly), as well as social injustice when, for example, it is difficult for part of the population to reach healthcare facilities, or, for children to reach a school.
It is estimated that Indonesia will need some USD $450 billion in funds to finance the government's infrastructure development plans for the 2015-2019 period. However, through the state budgets the government can only deliver USD $230 billion, or roughly 50 percent of required funds. The remainder should originate from the private sector (30 percent of total funds) and state-controlled enterprises (20 percent). However, is it likely that the private sector (both foreign and domestic) is to come up with USD $141 billion for investment in infrastructure up to 2019?
With the Indonesian government showing its commitment to push for infrastructure development, the property sector of Indonesia is expected to get a boost as infrastructure development opens access to new areas. For example, Indonesia's first high-speed train project that is to connect Jakarta and Bandung (in West Java) is expected to give rise to new economic centers and cities along the 142 kilometers-long railway. Moreover, existing property in the proximity of a new infrastructure project should lead to significantly rising property prices.
Bank Negara Indonesia (BNI), one of the leading banks in Indonesia, is expected to maintain rising net profit figures in the years ahead due to its decision to focus on (corporate) credit disbursement for domestic infrastructure development projects. In fact, according to RHB OSK Securities, BNI may become the state-controlled bank that benefits most from the government decision to raise its infrastructure budget to IDR 313.5 trillion (approx. USD $24 billion) in the 2016 State Budget. Last year, growth of credit disbursed by BNI to infrastructure projects climbed 116.2 percent (y/y). This year infrastructure credit may grow by another 19 percent.
Public spending on infrastructure development in Indonesia is not optimal. Sofyan Djalil, Indonesia's National Development Planning Minister as well as Head of the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas), says immature and non-integrated planning between ministries and other government agencies as well as between the central and regional governments cause inefficient and non-optimal infrastructure spending. Non-optimal infrastructure development implies that Indonesia's overall economic growth as well as social development cannot achieve its full potential.
After having grown rapidly in the years 2010-2013, infrastructure development in Indonesia lost its momentum in 2014. This was due to limited available government funds, uncertainty caused by the legislative and presidential elections, and the nation's slowing economic growth. After Joko Widodo became Indonesia's seventh president in October 2014, it was expected that infrastructure development would revive. However, it didn't. But Widodo made one important move by seriously reducing energy subsidies, hence making more funds available for infrastructure development.
Government-led infrastructure development is regarded by most analysts and policymakers as the key to overcome Indonesia’s slowing economic growth as infrastructure development will cause a multiplier effect in the economy (triggering growth in other industries such as cement and property while job availability grows accordingly). In the second quarter of 2015, Indonesia’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 4.67 percent (y/y), a six-year low.
The Finance Ministry of Indonesia announced that it plans to inject USD 1.63 billion into state-owned financing company Sarana Multi Infrastruktur and to transform this company into an infrastructure bank in a move to boost infrastructure development across Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The central government needs private capital to fund its massive infrastructure program for the next five years as it can only account for 30 percent of required investment. For the remainder it relies on private capital and state-owned enterprises.
