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Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA) touched a multi-year high in March 2018. The HBA, which is determined by Indonesia's Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry on a monthly basis (and which is based on several global and domestic indexes), rose 1.2 percent month-on-month (m/m) to USD $101.86 per metric ton in March 2018, its highest position since May 2012.
Indonesian President Joko Widodo met Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Taj Diplomatic Enclave Hotel in New Delhi, India, on Thursday (25/01). During the meeting Widodo - often nicknamed Jokowi - expressed the importance of enhancing economic cooperation between Indonesia and India, two big emerging market forces in the world.
India's decision to double import duties on crude palm oil (CPO) from 7.5 percent to 15 percent earlier this month should have a big impact (India being the world's largest palm oil importer). The move is an effort to protect domestic palm oil farmers. India also raised the levy on refined, bleached and deodorized (RBD) palm olein by 10 percent to 25 percent.
During his state visit to India, Indonesian President Joko Widodo signed three memoranda of understanding. Widodo is on a three-day visit to India (12-13 December) and Iran (14 December) to meet political and corporate leaders and to enhance business and trade relations with the two countries. Indonesia's seventh president is accompanied by Darmin Nasution (Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs), Pratikno (State Secretary), and Thomas Lembong (Chairman of the Investment Coordinating Board, or BKPM).
There will not be a rebound in the coal industry anytime soon. Indonesia, one of the world's leading (thermal) coal producers and exporters, says the nation's coal output will continue to decline in 2016 and 2017. This continued decline in production is caused by the decision of smaller miners to cease production amid the globe's low coal prices that touched a decade-low earlier this year. There should occur a positive side-effect, however, if miners indeed cut their output and that is upward support for coal prices.
Again, crude palm oil (CPO) shipments from Indonesia - the world's largest CPO producer and exporter - declined. Based on the latest data from the Indonesian Palm Oil Producers Association (Gapki), palm oil exports from Indonesia fell 16 percent on a month-on-month (m/m) basis to 2.1 million tons in January 2016. This decline was mainly caused by falling palm oil demand from the key export countries China and India.
Trouble for Indonesian coal miners will not end soon as India - one of the world's leading coal consumers - is eager to boost domestic production of coal thus reducing the need for coal imports. This has given additional downward pressure on global coal prices. Over the past 11 months Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA), a monthly reference price set by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, has been on a streak of continuously falling prices. The February 2016 rate was set at USD $50.92 per ton, a far cry from USD $111.58 per ton in February 2012.
There remains little hope to see rebounding coal prices soon. Indonesia's benchmark thermal coal price (Harga Batubara Acuan, or HBA), a monthly price set by the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources, fell another 4.29 percent month-to-month (m/m) to a new record low of USD $50.92 per metric ton (FOB) in February 2016 from USD $53.20 in the preceding month. Coal prices have difficulty to rise amid low crude oil and gas prices, while renewable energy sources are gaining popularity. Meanwhile, demand from China and India for Indonesian coal is falling.
The global coal industry is still plagued by pessimistic sentiment. Not only has the global supply glut in combination with sluggish global economic growth put serious pressure on coal prices (while China introduced stricter coal quality tests on thermal coal imports), but most countries are also placing more emphasize on cleaner energy sources, which further curtail demand for coal. Coal prices are currently heading for a decade-low with January 2016 coal futures now at USD $52.55 per metric ton on the ICE Futures Exchange.
There is limited to no room for palm oil prices to rise in the remainder of 2015 as crude palm oil (CPO) reserves have climbed while exports are down. CPO production in Indonesia, the world’s largest producer and exporter of this commodity, may have hit the one-year high of 3.20 million tons in August (from 2.86 million tons one month earlier) as trees reached their peak production period. Meanwhile, India introduced higher taxes for overseas purchases of palm oil in order to protect domestic growers.
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Although there is plenty of opposition to – and criticism on – Indonesia for allowing crude palm oil (or CPO) to play a big role in the domestic economy (Indonesia being the world’s largest producer and exporter of CPO), the country is currently feeling the windfall from soaring CPO prices. And, it is contributing to Indonesia’s recovery from the severe – and still ongoing – novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis.
India is increasingly investing in Indonesia. Based on data from Indonesia's Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM), India invested USD $285.4 million in Indonesia in full-year 2017. It is a relatively small amount but it does imply a 418 percent growth rate from USD $55.0 million worth of Indian investment in Indonesia in the preceding year. Thus, India jumped from 23rd to 16th in the ranking of biggest foreign investors in Indonesia.
Malaysia, the world’s second-largest crude palm oil (CPO) producer and exporter, will continue its duty-free export tariff for CPO in January 2015 according to information from the Malaysian customs department. Starting from September 2014 Malaysian authorities have implemented a duty-free CPO export policy in an effort to boost global demand and support international CPO prices (which have fallen nearly 20 percent this year). Indonesia, which has seen duty-free CPO shipments since October 2014, is expected to follow suit.
Reserves of crude palm oil (CPO) in Indonesia may have declined for a second straight month in October on the back of drought and an increase in exports from Southeast Asia’s largest economy. The delayed impact of drought (which even managed to dry up several rivers in West Kalimantan in October) limited production of CPO in recent weeks. Meanwhile, exports have increased after Indonesia and Malaysia - the world’s two top palm oil producers - scrapped export taxes to boost demand for this commodity.
British–Dutch multinational consumer goods company Unilever has to cope with slowing worldwide sales in the second quarter of 2014. Besides the negative impact of the strong euro (causing unfavorable exchange rates), underlying sales (which exclude exchange rate effects) of the company have slowed to 3.8 percent in the second quarter. In the first half of 2014, Unilever recorded a 5.5 percent (year-on-year) decline of revenue to €24.1 billion. However, net profit rose 12 percent to €3 billion, partly on gains derived from the sale of business units.
Prestigious Hong Kong-based HSBC Bank claims that a new commodity boom may appear if India will boost investments in infrastructure and housing. Chances of increased spending in India have grown considerably after reform-minded Narendra Modi posted a victory in the May 2014 election. Economists at the HSBC Bank say that this may give rise to a new prolonged commodities boom as had occurred in the 2000s which - to a large extent - was triggered by accelerated economic growth in emerging economies, particularly China.
Coal is one of the most important commodities for Indonesia in terms of state revenue as it accounts for about 85 percent of the country's total mining revenue. Therefore, when global coal prices fell sharply from 2011 (amid a slowing global economy), Indonesia felt the impact. In a response to lower coal prices, Indonesian miners actually increased coal output thus placing more downward pressure on coal prices and profit margins. Although the coal industry will remain frail for some time to come, long-term prospects are still strong.
Anoop Singh, Director of the Asia and Pacific Department within the International Monetary Fund (IMF), conducted a media roundtable in Tokyo today (30/10) in which he outlined the IMF's view on the economy of Asia. Asia will remain the global growth leader, although the IMF has lowered growth forecasts. Both tighter global liquidity and homegrown structural impediments will weigh on growth, but for most economies a gradual pickup in exports to advanced economies and resilient domestic demand should help support growth.
Softer than expected economic activity in the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and India and jitters over the United States (US) quantitative easing (QE) program will weigh on Asia and the Pacific’s growth prospects in the near term, says a new Asian Development Bank (ADB) report. “Asia and the Pacific's 2013 growth will come in below earlier projections due to more moderate activity in the region’s two largest economies and effects of QE nervousness,” said ADB Chief Economist Changyong Rhee.
Concerns have arisen over the government's plan to increase royalties and export duties for coal. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association (APBI) expects that this policy will lead to the closure of various coal miners while increasing acts of illegal mining. According to Bob Kamandanu, chairman of the APBI, 60 million tons of coal per year is not listed by any authority and thus can be labeled 'illegal'. Illegal coal mining also implies that the Indonesian government misses out on about IDR 5.6 trillion (USD $495.6 million) per year.
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