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Before we give an update on the monetary policy of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), it is worth mentioning that Bank Indonesia Governor Perry Warjiyo was appointed for another five-year term (2023-2028) as the central bank’s chief.
The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) raised its benchmark interest rate (BI 7-day reverse repo rate) by 25 basis points (bps) after concluding its two-day policy meeting on 18-19 January 2023. Indonesia’s benchmark rate now stands at 5.75 percent. It also raised its deposit facility and lending facility rates by 25 bps to 5.00 percent and 6.50 percent, respectively.
As expected, the central bank of Indonesia (henceforth: Bank Indonesia) decided to raise its benchmark interest rate (the 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate) by 25 basis points (bps) to 5.50 percent after concluding its latest (two-day) monetary policy meeting on 21-22 December 2022. Meanwhile, it also decided to raise the deposit facility and lending facility rates by 25 bps to 4.75 percent and 6.25 percent, respectively.
For the first time since early November 2020 – which is around five months ago – the Indonesian rupiah depreciated beyond the IDR 14,500 per US dollar level. It is a threshold that makes Indonesians a bit concerned.
The Indonesian rupiah had a good start of the month in November 2020. Based on Bank Indonesia’s Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor), the rupiah appreciated 3.4 percent against the US dollar in the first two trading weeks of November 2020.
The Indonesian rupiah rate, which had been under extreme pressure amid the start of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis in March 2020, rebounded in April 2020 and continued this rebound throughout May 2020 (albeit at a less impressive pace).
While the Indonesian rupiah rate had retreated against the US dollar in November 2019 amid an increase in uncertainty in international markets, the Indonesian currency managed to end the year 2019 on a positive note.
The Indonesian rupiah rate appreciated modestly in September 2019. The currency started the month at the level of IDR 14,237 per US dollar and ended the month at IDR 14,174 per US dollar (data taken from Bank Indonesia’s benchmark Jisdor rate). In other words, the rupiah strengthened 0.44 percent against greenback in the month of September 2019.
The Indonesian rupiah made a stable performance against the US dollar in February 2019. The benchmark JISDOR rate of Bank Indonesia ended the second month of the year at the position of IDR 14,062 per US dollar, appreciating modestly from the level of IDR 14,072 per US dollar at the last trading day of January 2019.
In the month of December 2018 the Indonesian rupiah weakened 0.99 percent from IDR 14,339 per US dollar on the last trading day of November 2018 to IDR 14,481 per US dollar on the last trading day of December 2018 (based on Bank Indonesia’s benchmark JISDOR rate).
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The continued presence of negative market sentiments made it impossible for Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) to rebound. The looming end of the FED's quantitative easing program - which may be wound down sooner than expected - is a big cause for concern. The depreciating Indonesia rupiah exchange rate intensifies these concerns, particularly regarding companies that have exposure to volatile US dollar movements. Furthermore, investors are waiting for further US economic data as well as for Bank Indonesia's next meeting.
Various factors contributed to the 2.30 percent decline of the Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG) on Tuesday (26/11). The index in fact fell below its support level. What were the main reasons for this weak performance? Firstly, the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate has been depreciating severely and causes concerns among market players. Secondly, most Asian stock indices fell as valuations climbed high and the Japanese Yen strengthened. Thirdly, European stock openings on Tuesday were weak. All these reasons together led to foreign net selling.
The Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index, abbreviated IHSG) made a positive start on Monday (25/11). Investors were confident amid today's rising indices throughout Asia, brought on by the record breaking Dow Jones Index on Wall Street at the end of last week. However, this market optimism failed to provide a significant boost to the IHSG as the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate continued its downward spiral. The IHSG was up 0.39 percent to 4,334.80 points at the end of Monday's trading day.
IHSG masih dalam laju pelemahannya setelah pelaku pasar turut merespon negatif hasil rapat FOMC yang mensinyalkan akan adanya pengurangan pembelian obligasi AS dalam beberapa bulan ke depan dan terimbas pelemahan laju bursa saham Asia setelah rilis pre-HSBC manufacturing PMI China menunjukkan adanya penurunan. IHSG yang sedang mencoba untuk keluar dari tren pelemahan menjadi berkurang peluangnya dengan maraknya sentimen-sentimen negatif sehingga memicu adanya aksi jual, termasuk laju nilai tukar Rupiah yang masih betah dalam tren penurunannya membuat pelaku pasar semakin kehilangan mood.
Laju IHSG yang awalnya hanya melemah tipis dan mencoba untuk rebound, jelang sore hari berubah menjadi pelemahan setelah dipersuram oleh hasil RDG BI yang menaikkan BI rate dari level 7,25 persen menjadi 7,5 persen. Kenaikan BI rate ini tentunya dipersepsikan bahwa kondisi makroekonomi Indonesia yang belum akan membaik dan terutama timbul juga penilaian bahwa masih akan tingginya inflasi hingga akhir tahun.
The Jakarta Composite index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index or IHSG) fell on Monday (11/11) amid mixed Asian markets. Not even positive finishes on Wall Street last Friday (08/11) were able to support the IHSG. Most investors seem to be waiting for results of Bank Indonesia's Board of Governor's Meeting which is scheduled for Tuesday (12/11). This meeting will provide answers about the central bank's view of the domestic economy and whether it thinks another adjustement of the BI rate is necessary.
After the one-day holiday due to the Islamic new year, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) started in the red on Wednesday (06/11) amid the continued depreciation of the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar and the mixed performance of Asian stock indices (influenced by weakening global indices on the previous day). However, during the day a number of stocks, which had fallen previously, became popular investment targets, which supported the index.
The Jakarta Composite Index (Indonesia's benchmark stock index) fell 1.73 percent on Friday (01/11) to 4,432.58 points. A persistent concern for investors is the tapering issue of the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program. Analysts expect the program to continue at a pace of USD $85 billion per month until at least March 2014, but investors remain concerned. Another issue that brought negative market sentiments was September's trade figure, which was released today. In September, Indonesia recorded a trade deficit of USD $657.2 million.
In line with falling Asian indices, Indonesia's benchmark stock index (the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) was down on Tuesday (29/10). Investors are cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting and thus used today to engage in profit taking. The IHSG fell 0.60 percent to 4,562.77 points. Moreover, the appreciating trend of the rupiah exchange rate was disturbed ahead of the Fed meeting and which also formed a contributing factor for the fall of the IHSG today. Foreign investors recorded a net sell, while domestic investors recorded a net buy.
Wall Street and European indices being up at the end of last week had a positive impact on Asian stock indices on Monday (28/10), despite experiencing a correction during today's trading day. The Jakarta Composite Index (IHSG), Indonesia's benchmark stock index, joined this trend. After making a strong start, it became susceptible to profit taking and thus had a mixed performance although it ended at 4,590.54 points, a 0.21 percent increase. The IHSG was supported by foreign net buying and an appreciating rupiah exchange rate.
