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Berita Hari Ini COVID-19
On Monday (05.07.2021) Indonesia Investments released its latest report - the June 2021 edition titled 'COVID-19 Crisis Intensifies; Second Wave Resembles Tsunami'. In the report we analyze the huge surge in new confirmed COVID-19 cases that occurred in Indonesia in recent weeks and the emergency measures (PPKM Darurat) that have been imposed by the government.
While Indonesia Investments predicted the decline in imports into Indonesia in May 2021 – after Ramadan and Idul Fitri momentum had passed – we were surprised to see a significant drop in the country’s exports that same month.
After a whopping 16 straight months of contraction (on an annual basis), the latest retail sales data (released by Bank Indonesia) showed that retail sales in Indonesia jumped 15.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) in April 2021. That is a strong rebound!
While Indonesian inflation accelerated more than we had predicted amid the festive season in May 2021 (referring to the Idul Fitri celebrations that mark the end of the Ramadan month), it remained low overall for Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
While Indonesia is still in the middle of the COVID-19 crisis, albeit – most likely – set to exit the economic recession in the second quarter of 2021 due to the so-called low base effect, and while Indonesian consumers continue to display reluctance to spend (reflected by 16 consecutive months of contracting retail trade on an annual basis), the Indonesian government expressed its intention to raise Indonesia’s Value-Added Tax (VAT, or in Indonesian: Pajak Pertambahan Nilai, abbreviated as PPN).
It was already known that –just like in 2020– the Indonesian government would ban the traditional mudik this year (mudik, which is a distinctive feature of Indonesian culture, refers to the exodus of millions of city-dwellers toward their places of origin where they typically spend a few days to celebrate the end of the Ramadan month).
The textile and textile products industry (which includes garments or clothes) is a very important one for the Indonesian economy because this industry ranks among the country’s biggest foreign exchange earners (thanks to strong exports), while also providing jobs to more than 3.7 million Indonesians, and contributing nearly seven percent to the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) – provided we only take non-oil and gas manufacturing into account – or around 1.25 percent of total GDP.
On 5 May 2021, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), released the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia, covering the first quarter of 2021. As expected, the economic recession persisted into Q1-2021 for Southeast Asia’s largest economy.
While the COVID-19 crisis has seriously disrupted consumption, production, trade, and investment around the globe, this crisis apparently has only a limited impact on direct investment realization in Indonesia. After experiencing a relatively modest hiccup only in Q2-2020, investment recovered to record high levels in subsequent quarters. Does that make sense? What is going on here?
On Wednesday (05.05.2021) Indonesia Investments released the April 2021 edition of its monthly report. In the report we track important developments - from the perspective of politics, the economy and social matters - that were influential (and impacted on the Indonesian economy) last month.
Artikel Terbaru COVID-19
Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) announced at the start of February 2023 that it had recorded a total of 5.47 million foreign visitor arrivals in full-2022. It means Indonesia managed to achieve its foreign visitor target (quite easily) last year (which was set at the wide range of 1.8 – 3.6 million).
It is November, again! This means that Indonesia’s provincial governments need to determine the provincial minimum wages for next year (these new minimum wages will kick in per 1 January 2023).
It is now about one month after the national Idul Fitri holiday when millions of city-dwellers travelled by air, road, rail and water back to their places of origin to spend a couple of days with their (extended) families. The positive news is that this huge movement of people did not lead to an increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in Indonesia.
Despite the ongoing challenges (that mainly originate from abroad), there is reason to be optimistic about Indonesia’s economic growth in 2022 as the COVID-19 threat has eased.
On 7 February 2022, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) announced the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia, covering the final quarter of 2021.
In January 2022 Indonesian Minister for Coordinating Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said the Indonesian government aims to ratify the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement in the first quarter of 2022. Just like the Philippines and Myanmar, Indonesia is still to ratify the RCEP even though this agreement already took effect per 1 January 2022.
Last month we discussed the Omicron variant that had officially arrived in Indonesia in late-November 2021.
In the first month of 2022, we detected some positive signs, both abroad and at home (in Indonesia) as there is growing evidence that the Omicron variant is encouraging strong herd immunity around the world, while not making too many people ill to the extent that they require hospitalization.
In the last week of December 2021, Perry Warjiyo, Governor of Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia), sent a strong signal to markets that the benchmark interest rate of Indonesia (seven-day reverse repo rate) will not be raised before Q3-2022. This is much later than we initially expected.
There are reasons to be optimistic about Indonesia’s economic activity in the fourth quarter of 2021. Obviously, the underlying reason being that new confirmed COVID-19 infections have not been far from zero in Indonesia throughout the final quarter of the year. As a consequence, the government of Indonesia did not need to impose tough restrictions, hence economic activity is allowed to blossom.
