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The benchmark Jakarta Composite Index of Indonesia - Jakarta Composite Index - rebounded 0.46 percent to 6,605.63 points on Wednesday (31/01) after the heavy 1.57 percent drop on the preceding day when Asian stock markets were dragged down by Wall Street and rising global bond yields.
Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.002 percent to 6,615.33 points on Thursday (25/01), almost unchanged from Wednesday's close. The performance of stocks was quite volatile across the Asian region. While benchmark indexes in the Philippines, Vietnam and South Korea rose sharply, those in Singapore, Thailand, Japan and South Korea saw steep declines. Indonesia's performance was in between the two extremes.
Indonesia's state-owned utility company Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN) plans to issue rupiah-denominated global bonds (known as 'komodo bonds', 'nasi goreng' bonds or 'rendang' bonds) in the second quarter of 2018. PLN targets to raise up to USD $2 billion through the bond issuance. Proceeds will be used for financing its part in Indonesia's 35,000 MW power development program as well as for debt payments.
Despite rising Asian stocks on Thursday morning (04/01), supported by higher crude oil prices, surging Japanese shares, and US Federal Reserve minutes that show policy makers agree to a "gradual approach" in terms of further monetary tightening, Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index is expected to remain under pressure today.
Despite generally rising stock markets across Asia - still being supported by upbeat manufacturing data that hint at an upturn in global economic growth this year - Indonesia is bucking the trend, sliding 1.37 percent in the first trading session on Wednesday (03/01).
It was a remarkable first trading day of the year in Indonesia. Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index showed a very volatile performance, starting in the red, then rising sharply to +1.32 percent around noon, and then falling to close 0.26 percent in the red zone at 6,339.24 points.
There is no stop to the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index in the last week of 2017. Amid mixed Asian stock markets (and thin trading volumes), Indonesian stocks are persistently touching new record highs. By 11:25 am local Jakarta time on Friday, the last trading day of the year, the Jakarta Composite Index had climbed 0.77 percent to 6,362.69 points on Friday (29/12).
Approaching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting - scheduled for 12-13 December 2017 - the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate remained stable on Monday (11/12). By 15:00 pm local Jakarta time, the rupiah had strengthened 0.01 percent to IDR 13,548 per US dollar (Bloomberg Dollar Index). However, several analysts warn that the rupiah is likely to depreciate if the US Federal Reserve will indeed raise its benchmark interest rate.
As we are in the middle of the fourth quarter of 2017, we detect rising pressures on the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate amid broad US dollar strength. However, the decision of Indonesia's central bank to leave its interest rate regime unchanged at the November meeting managed to give some support to the rupiah (as well as Indonesia's improving balance of payments, current account deficit, and capital and financial account).
Indonesia's benchmark Jakarta Composite Index touched a new all-time record high on Wednesday (25/10). More importantly, the benchmark index passed beyond the psychological boundary of 6,000 points and closed 1.23 percent higher at 6,025.43 points. This great performance was driven by Indonesia's energy and financial stocks.
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At the latest monthly monetary policy meeting (held on 21-22 June 2023) the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to keep its benchmark interest rate (the Seven-Day Reverse Repo Rate) at 5.75 percent. The lender of last resort also kept its deposit facility and lending facility rates at 5.0 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively.
In our previous report we expected to witness a calmer international context as the US Federal Reserve was assumed (by markets and most analysts) to have ended its monetary tightening phase.
Last month, we saw that the Indonesian rupiah started appreciating when the world was focused on the US Federal Reserve’s response to the collapse of three American banks (followed by trouble at Credit Suisse).
There are analysts who believe that the international banking crisis that started in the second week of March 2023 is just the beginning of more to come. After Credit Suisse was affected amid the global decline of confidence in the banking sector, some now fear that German bank Deutsche Bank could be the next victim. What does this mean for the Indonesian rupiah?
In line with expectations, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark interest rate (BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate) at 5.75 percent after the two-day policy meeting on 15-16 February 2023. It also kept its deposit facility and the lending facility at 5.00 percent and 6.50 percent, respectively.
As expected, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) decided to impose a 50 basis points (bps) interest rate hike after concluding its two-day monetary policy meeting on 16-17 November 2022.
As usual, we devote our first article to the Indonesian economy. But before we zoom in on the latest macroeconomic data of Indonesia, we first provide some context by discussing the global economy.
In the second half of September 2022 the Indonesian rupiah experienced some steep depreciating pressures, nearly touching IDR 15,300 per US dollar. It prompted Bank Indonesia to step and intervene in markets to limit the currency’s decline; a step that typically leads to a drop in the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
Indonesia’s central bank (Bank Indonesia) – finally – decided to raise its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.75 percent after concluding its two-day policy meeting on 23 August 2022, thereby joining the global wave of rate hikes as central banks need to combat accelerated inflation, while –especially in emerging markets – higher rates also function to prevent too much capital outflows as US assets become more attractive amid aggressive US Federal Reserve tightening.
Again, the central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) kept its benchmark interest rate (called the ‘BI Seven-Day Reverse Repo Rate’) at 3.50 percent after concluding its latest monetary policy meeting (on 20-21 July 2022).
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