Indonesia's ceramic industry has cut utilization of its total installed production capacity to the range of 30 - 50 percent, implying that ceramic manufacturers in Southeast Asia's largest economy are producing less than half of what they could produce. Low utilization of production capacity is the result of weakening ceramic sales over the past couple of years (mainly due to the sluggishly performing property sector of Indonesia). Some ceramic producers have slashed prices by up to 20 percent in a bid to boost sales and reduce stockpiles of ceramics at their warehouses.

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The Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (Asaki) estimates that production costs in Indonesia's ceramic industry could decline up to 35 percent now the government plans to lower the gas price for industrial usage. Elisa Sinaga, Chairman of the Asaki, said Indonesian ceramic producers currently pay an average USD $9.1 per mmbtu (million metric British thermal units) for the ceramic production process, considerably higher than the gas prices that manufacturers pay in Singapore, Thailand, and India. This difference makes Indonesian ceramic products less competitive.

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Ceramic sales in Indonesia in the first quarter of 2016 are estimated to stand at 85 million square meters (m2) only, far below the 100 million m2 target that was set by the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (Asaki). Weak demand for ceramics in Indonesia is primarily caused by the country's sluggish property sector that is yet to rebound after several years of slowdown. Elisa Sinaga, Chairman of Asaki, stated that despite ceramic sales having improved slightly in late-2015, demand fell again in the first quarter of 2016 and remained weak up to the start of April 2016.

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Although ceramic sales in Indonesia are flat in Q1-2016, some stakeholders remain optimistic that sales of ceramics in Indonesia may grow 20 percent (y/y) to 433 million square meters in 2016. This growth comes on the back of the government's push for infrastructure development, promotional activities (conducted by Indonesia's ceramic industry), and the lower gas price. Infrastructure development will encourage property development. With the property sector being the largest buyer of ceramics, Indonesia's ceramic industry should thrive on government-led infrastructure development.

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Indonesia's ceramic sales are estimated to remain sluggish in the first quarter of 2016. Elisa Sinaga, Chairman of the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (Asaki), said domestic ceramic sales are estimated to be around 90 million square meters in Q1-2016, stagnant from sales in the same quarter last year. In full-year 2015 Indonesia's ceramic sales plunged 28.6 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 360 million square meters. The nation's ceramic industry has been plagued by Indonesia's slowing economic growth, particularly the slowdown in Indonesia's property sector.

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Ceramic sales in Indonesia are projected to decline to IDR 25 trillion (approx. USD $1.8 billion) in 2015 from total sales worth IDR 36 trillion last year. Elisa Sinaga, Chairman of the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (ASAKI), said 2015 is a year full of challenges for the domestic ceramic industry due to Indonesia's slowing economic growth (particularly the slowdown of the nation's property sector), high gas prices, higher minimum wages, and the fragile rupiah (having depreciated around 11 percent against the US dollar so far in 2015).

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The ceramic industry in Indonesia is expected to grow about ten percent in 2015 amid the country’s +5 percentage point GDP growth. Economic expansion translates to increased purchasing power of Indonesian consumers and the ceramic industry is one of the industries that will benefit from this. Moreover, as Indonesian President Joko Widodo targets +7 percent GDP by the end of his term, new infrastructure and property projects are to rise as well. As such, domestic ceramic demand will increase accordingly.

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The Indonesian ceramic industry is expected to continue its steady growth in 2014. Chairman of the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (ASAKI) Elisa Sinaga said that ceramic sales may reach IDR 36 trillion (USD $3.1 billion) in 2014. Most of these sales - approximately 87 percent - are sold on the domestic market, while the remainder is exported. The sales volume of sanitary ceramics (used on walls and floors) is targeted at 410 million m2 this year (worth roughly IDR 27 trillion), up from 360 million m2 in 2013 (IDR 24 trillion).

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Growth of the Indonesian property sector, estimated at 10 to 15 percent in 2014, boosts sales of ceramics. Similarly, the nation's construction sector - which grew 7 percent per year on average between 2009 and 2013 - stimulates the ceramic industry. This year, revenue in the Indonesian ceramic industry is projected at IDR 34 trillion (USD $3.0 billion). About 85 percent of total revenue in the country's ceramic industry is forecast to be generated through domestic sales, the remainder through exports abroad.

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Utilization of Indonesia's installed ceramic production capacity fell from 92 percent in 2014 to 62 percent in 2015, while the country's ceramic sales plunged 28.6 percent (y/y) to 350 million square meters over the same period. Elisa Sinaga, Chairman of the Indonesian Ceramic Industry Association (ASAKI), said ceramic sales have fallen over the past two years due to slowing economic growth and the sluggish property sector. Sales are expected to remain stagnant in 2016.

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With slowing economic growth and a stricter monetary policy approach of the central bank, Indonesia's ceramic industry is expected to record slowing growth in 2014. This year, the country's ceramic sales are projected to amount to 400 million square meters (m²). About 12 percent of this amount is exported to countries abroad. However, in 2014, sales are expected to plunge by 5 to 10% to 360-380 million m². A weakening rupiah and slowing property sector, which accounts for significant ceramic demand, are the major causes of the decline.

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Indonesia's ceramic industry recorded sales amounting to IDR 14 trillion (USD $1.4 billion) in the first six months of 2013. This implies a 27 percent increase compared to ceramic sales in the same period in 2012. The increase is particularly caused by higher sales prices in January and March 2013 which were introduced to mitigate higher gas and electricity tariffs as well as higher minimum wages. Generally, ceramic prices rose 10 to 15 percent. Ceramics sales volume in semester I-2013 increased to 190 million m² from 180 m² in 2012.

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