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Today's Headlines Car Export
Although it proves difficult for Indonesian car manufacturers to export their output to overseas markets, reflected by the declining number of local car exporters (declining from eight in 2013 to five at the start of 2018), Indonesia's car shipments have been rising steadily over the past five years. However, in absolute terms the figure remains modest with 231,169 exported car units from Indonesia in full-year 2017.
The Indonesian government is preparing a number of diplomatic moves related to the issuance of Prime Minister of Vietnam Decision No. 116/2017/ND-CP on Overseas Vehicle Type Approval (VTA). This regulation, which came into effect in Vietnam in January 2018, potentially eliminates about USD $85 million of Indonesia's foreign exchange earnings in the automotive industry up to March 2018.
Indonesian exports of completely built up (CBU) car units surged in the first quarter of 2017, a development that may indicate that global economic growth is improving (specifically in the export destination nations). Based on data from the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) Indonesia exported 56,371 units in Q1-2017, up 53.4 percent year-on-year (y/y) from 36,750 units in the same period one year earlier.
The utilization of Indonesia's installed car production capacity is expected to fall from 58 percent in 2016 to 55 percent in 2017 as the expansion of domestic manufacturing capacity is not in line with growth of domestic car sales and car exports. Indonesia's car production capacity rose 14 percent (y/y) to 2.2 million units in 2017 due to the start of operations at two factories (owned by Mitsubishi and Wuling). However, the actual car production figure of Indonesia is estimated to reach 1.2 million units only in 2017 (up 9 percent from 1.1 million units in the preceding year).
Indonesia’s exports of cars and components reached a value of USD $552.6 million in August 2016, up 50.3 percent (m/m) from USD $368.3 million in the preceding month when many countries celebrated Idul Fitri (marking the end of the holy Ramadan month). According to data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia exported a total of USD $3.72 billion worth of cars and components in the first eight months of 2016, up 1.5 percent on a year-on-year (y/y) basis. Jongkie Sugiarto, Chairman of the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), said rising car exports from Indonesia continue the positive performance that was recorded last year.
Last year Indonesian President Joko Widodo emphasized the importance for Indonesia to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) as this free trade deal - one of the world's most ambitious trade deals, covering an area that contributes about 40 percent to total global trade - will make the Indonesian economy more efficient and its exports more competitive (while also expanding the nation's export base). However, there also exist concerns about a possible participation of Indonesia in this free trade deal. One of the concerns involves Indonesia's automotive industry.
Domestic car sales in Indonesia are expected to rebound in the second half of 2016 in line with Indonesia's improving macro-economy. Jongkie Sugiarto, Chairman of the Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo), is optimistic that the small drop in Indonesia's February car sales is a sign that the sales decline is stabilizing. In February 2016 a total of 88,250 cars were sold in Indonesia, down 0.6 percent (y/y) from car sales in the same month one year earlier. Fitch Ratings also expects Indonesian car sales to rebound this year.
Despite car sales having slowed significantly in Indonesia, there are at least three automotive companies eager to invest a combined IDR 21 trillion (approx. USD $1.6 billion) to expand production capacity in Indonesia this year (either by establishing a new factory or enhancing production capacity at existing plants). In 2015 car sales in Indonesia fell 16.1 percent (year-on-year) to 1.01 million vehicles, the nation's lowest car sales figure since 2011. However, Indonesia remains the second-largest car market and producer in the ASEAN region, after Thailand.
Production of cars in Indonesia is expected to decline 15 percent (y/y) to an estimated 1.1 million vehicles in 2015, far below the target (1.6 million vehicles) set in the automotive industry roadmap desinged by the Indonesian Industry Ministry. This drop is due to the slowdown in car sales in Southeast Asia's largest economy. Slowing economic growth, which dragged down Indonesia's gross domestic product (GDP) growth to a six-year low, resulted in weakening purchasing power of Indonesian consumers.
Indonesian car exports may reach 310,000 vehicles in 2014, a 12.72 percentage point growth from last year (275,000 vehicles). Exports of completely built up (CBU) units are expected to number 200,000 while completely knocked down (CKD) units are estimated to reach 110,000 units by the year-end. Indonesian Industry Minister MS Hidayat confirmed that the automotive industry of Indonesia has shown good performance. Currently, Indonesian automotive products are exported to a total of 80 countries.
Latest Columns Car Export
The Indonesian Automotive Industry Association (Gaikindo) raised its target for Indonesia's car exports (completely built up units, or, CBU) to 220,000 vehicles in 2016. This figure implies Gaikindo targets to see a 6 percent (y/y) increase in car exports from 207,691 units last year. Gaikindo Chairman Jongkie Sugiarto said the global economy has started to stabilize and this should have a positive effect on Indonesia's car shipments.
Indonesia's automotive industry experienced some drastic changes in recent years. Originally regarded as a mere production hub due to cheap productions costs (particularly wages), it changed into a major car sales market as per capita GDP continues to grow and gives rise to an expanding middle class. Since 2011, domestic car sales in Indonesia have reached record highs and given that the country's per capita car ownership is still relatively low, there is room for more growth. But Indonesia is also eager to become an important car exporting country.
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