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Berita Hari Ini Prabowo Subianto
Each quarter we present an update on the 2024 legislative and presidential elections of Indonesia. These elections are important as Indonesia is still a young democracy where policies can change rather suddenly and drastically.
While the 2024 general elections of Indonesia (involving both the presidential and legislative elections) are scheduled to be held on 14 February 2024, we expect to see a growing focus on these approaching elections throughout 2023. The reason is that campaigning will kick off before the end of 2023 (namely on 28 November 2023).
Those who closely follow Indonesian media should have noticed that there has been an increase in coverage of the approaching 2024 presidential election. This involves articles and analyses of the electability of certain political persons (including polls and surveys) but also articles that we consider (hidden) marketing.
On Thursday (27.06.2019) Indonesia's Constitutional Court read out its verdict on the subject of alleged election campaign violations in the 2019 presidential election that was held on 17 April 2019. Defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto had filed the legal challenge as he felt the official results (which had been announced by Indonesia's General Elections Commission/KPU) were heavily influenced by widespread fraud and vote-buying.
In the early morning of Tuesday 21 May 2019, Indonesia's General Elections Commission (KPU) declared incumbent President Joko Widodo the winner of Indonesia's 2019 presidential election. Meanwhile, the KPU also stated that the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) secured most support among the Indonesian people.
Today, Wednesday 17 April 2019, the Indonesian people vote for the country's presidential and legislative elections. While the legislative elections are not less important, most eyes are set on the presidential election; a battle between incumbent President Joko Widodo and challenger Prabowo Subianto.
It could be a coincidence but there is a peak in high-profile corruption cases ahead of the 2019 elections. In another article in the October 2018 research report we discuss the cases of the Lippo Group and Sinar Mas Group, two of the biggest conglomerates in Indonesia. It is widely known that big companies have their networks in political circles, such as the House of Representatives (DPR) and at the political top in provinces.
Indonesia Investments received information that presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto has selected Deputy Jakarta Governor Sandiaga Uno to become his vice-presidential candidate in the 2019 presidential election. The choice for Uno is allegedly accepted by Subianto's Gerindra party as well as by the National Mandate Party (PAN) and Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).
While according to the opinion polls incumbent President Joko Widodo has a big lead over his (seemingly only) rival Prabowo Subianto for the 2019 presidential election, he declines to comment on the race. Instead Widodo - often called Jokowi - chooses to remain focused on work as "a lot has not been completed yet".
Business and politics are highly related to each other and therefore it is worthwhile to take a look at chief executive officers' (CEOs) confidence in Indonesia's national politics as well as their expectations for Indonesia's future political conditions. Local media company Kontan recently issued its latest Kontan CEO Confidence Index (KCCI).
Artikel Terbaru Prabowo Subianto
It took almost six hours for the Constitutional Court of Indonesia (Mahkamah Konstitusi) on Thursday (21/08) to read out 300 pages of a lengthy 4,392-page verdict in the case filed by defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto, who claimed that the result of Indonesia’s July 2014 presidential election was invalid due to widespread violations and fraud that allegedly occurred during the voting and counting processes. During the read out it became increasingly clear that the court would reject Subianto’s claims due to a lack of evidence.
At 14:00 pm local Jakarta time zone, Indonesia’s Constitutional Court (Mahkamah Konstitusi) is expected to announce its decision on Prabowo Subianto’s election result challenge. The defeated presidential candidate filed a court case claiming that massive fraud and violations took place amid the voting and counting processes in the context of Indonesia’s July 2014 presidential election, won by Joko Widodo (securing 53.15 percent of the votes). Although the court’s decision is final and legally binding, Subianto not expected to surrender yet.
Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (known as the Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) climbed 0.31 percent to 5,206.14 points on Thursday's trading (21/08) on speculation that Indonesia’s Constitutional Court will reject defeated presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto’s claim that the official July 2014 presidential result is illegal due to massive violations. Although the Court is still reading out the verdict, it has already indicated that evidence for violations is incomplete and unconvincing. Therefore, a Court decision that calls for revoting has become unlikely.
When campaigning, presidential candidates will always promise a bright future in order to gain votes. It is particularly easy for a new presidential candidate to promise golden mountains as opposed to the incumbent president who needs to be more cautious making promises as people can point to the (failed) results of his promises during the presidential term. The 2014 Indonesian presidential election was particularly interesting as we saw two new presidential candidates and, thus, the ‘inflation of promises’.
Indonesian stocks and the rupiah exchange rate showed great volatility on Tuesday’s trading day (22/07). In the first part of the day the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite Index of IHSG) and rupiah strengthened on speculation that market favourite Joko “Jokowi” Widodo would win the presidential election without riots or other incidents that could trigger political uncertainties. On Tuesday evening, the General Elections Commission (KPU) indeed officially declared Jokowi the winner of the election.
One day ahead of the official result of the Indonesian presidential election, the benchmark stock index of Indonesia (known as Jakarta Composite Index or IHSG) showed a good performance as market participants seem to speculate not only on a Joko Widodo win, but also on a peaceful and orderly course of events (no large scale demonstrations or riots). On Sunday, president Yudhoyono received both presidential candidates at the State Palace for dinner. This may have helped to cool some of the tension between supporters of both sides.
Recent elections in Indonesia have met with a great deal of attention and look to be a decisive moment for the country. We are looking at a country that has major financial problems and also is making a decision about the direction of its democracy. Prabowo Subianto has pledged to conduct a rollback in some of the aspects of Indonesia’s democracy. So the supporters of Indonesian democracy will be watching very closely to see how the recent election events will unfold.
Most Asian stock indices were up on Tuesday (15/07) influenced by rising indices on Wall Street and in Europe on the previous day. Also for investors on Indonesia’s benchmark stock index (Jakarta Composite Index) this meant an opportunity to engage in stock trading even though the Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated considerably and political uncertainties remain (as the winner of the Indonesian presidential election remains a question mark). In fact, investors were confused to see the Merah Putih coalition.
The Indonesian rupiah exchange rate depreciated 0.67 percent to IDR 11,665 per US dollar on Monday (14/07) according to the Bloomberg Dollar Index. Meanwhile, the benchmark stock exchange of Indonesia (Jakarta Composite Index) declined 0.23 percent to 5,021.06 points. The main reason for weakening markets in Indonesia is investors’ wait & see attitude ahead of the official result of Indonesia’s presidential election. On 22 July 2014, the General Elections Commission (KPU) will announce the winner of the election.
As had been predicted previously by various popularity surveys, the outcome of the Indonesian presidential election, a race between Joko Widodo (known as Jokowi) and Prabowo Subianto, was close. In fact, after the unofficial yet reliable quick count results had been collected, both camps claimed a victory. However, the majority of the quick count results show a Jokowi victory with a margin of about five to six percentage points. On 22 July 2014, the Indonesian General Elections Commission (KPU) will announce the official result.
