When looking at the trade data that were released by Indonesia’s Statistics Agency (BPS) on Monday (16/04) there is something interesting about Indonesia’s steel exports. Indonesia is a relatively small steel producing nation (and actually imports about half of its domestic steel consumption, mostly from China) but its iron & steel exports to the USA soared over 1,500 percent month-on-month (m/m) from USD $2.13 million in February 2018 to USD $35 million in March 2018. Reason behind this surge may very well be the trade war between China and the USA.

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Competitiveness in Indonesia's steel manufacturing industry can be strengthened if Indonesian steelmakers, especially the smaller ones, decide to engage in mergers and acquisitions (M&As). Mas Wigrantoro Roes Setiyadi, General Chairman of the Indonesian Iron and Steel Industry Association (IISIA), advises Indonesia's smaller steel producers to embrace M&A to make their business more economically and efficiently.

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Indonesian steel manufacturers urge the government to curb the dumping of steel by foreign traders in Indonesia. Hidayat Triseputro, Executive Director of the Indonesian Iron and Steel Industry Association (IISIA), says the key problem is the free trade zone in Batam (located close to Singapore) where steel can be imported duty-free.

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The Indonesian Iron & Steel Industry Association (IISIA) says Indonesia is in big need of investment in the steel industry in order to expand the nation's steel production capacity. In the years ahead, steel demand is expected to rise strongly in Indonesia on the back of construction and infrastructure projects. Without investment, Indonesia will become increasingly dependent on steel imports.

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Indonesian steel manufacturers urge the Indonesian government to improve the monitoring of steel trade as rising steel imports undermine the performance of domestic steel producers. Hidayat Triseputro, Executive Director of the Indonesian Iron and Steel Industry Association (IISIA), said domestic steel production capacity is indeed not enough to meet domestic steel demand. However, importers are currently taking advantage of the import policies, and this comes at the expense of expansion of the domestic steel industry.

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An Indonesian delegation collected more than USD $1.6 billion worth of investment commitments in a follow-up meeting after the Belt and Road summit in Beijing (held on 14-15 May 2017). These investment commitments come from two Chinese companies - Delong Steel Ltd and Tsing San Group - that are set to build a carbon steel factory in the industrial zone of Morowali (Central Sulawesi). Both firms team up with Indonesian company Indonesia Morowali Industrial Park for the development of the factory.

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The price of hot rolled coil (HRC) steel in Indonesia jumped 20 percent to USD $600 per ton in the first quarter of 2017, from USD $500 per ton in the same quarter one year earlier. This price growth is encouraged by the rising global steel price, a trend that is expected to continue in the remainder of 2017. Based on data from MEsteel, a Middle East b2b steel portal, the price of the benchmark HRC stood at USD $545 per ton in March 2017, up 49 percent from USD $365 per ton in the same month one year ago.

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Sales of steel in Indonesia are expected to grow 7 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 15 million tons in 2017, from an estimated 14 million tons of steel sales this year. This growth is attributed to rising infrastructure development in Indonesia and the lower gas price (which is expected to be a reason for the nation's steel manufacturers to boost output). Purwono Widodo, Director for International Relations of the Indonesian Iron and Steel Association (IISIA), said steel sales in Indonesia fell in 2015 but rebounded in 2016.

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Steel consumption in Indonesia is expected to rise to 13-14 million tons in 2016, from 11.3 million tons in the preceding year. Growth is supported by infrastructure development in Indonesia. Data from the Southeast Asia Iron and Steel Institute (SEAISI) shows that steel consumption in Indonesia rose 11 percent year-on-year (y/y) to 6.4 million tons in the first half of 2016. In fact, many local companies are currently buying steel to fill their warehouses as the steel price tends to be highest in the January-February period.

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The Indonesian Iron and Steel Association (IISIA) predicts that steel sales in Indonesia will grow nearly 9 percent (y/y) to 12.5 million tons in 2016, from 11.5 million tons in 2015, on the back of new infrastructure projects. IISIA Director for International Relations Purwono Widodo adds that the market share of locally-produced steel is expected to rise from 40 percent to 60 percent. This is a positive development because the steel market in Indonesia has been dominated by imports (mostly from China).

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Steel pipe and tube manufacturer Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia (Spindo), which has the largest steel pipe production capacity among manufacturers in Indonesia, is expected to show solid corporate earnings in the period ahead as the company bought raw materials for its production process when the hot-rolled coil (HRC) price was near its lowest at USD $265 per ton. Investa Saran Mandiri expects that Spindo's earnings will improve markedly starting from the second quarter of 2016 as the HRC price has risen to USD $485 per ton in May 2016.

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The price of steel has surged 20 percent to USD $365 per ton in April 2016 from USD $305 per ton at the start of the year. The primary reason for the higher steel price is China's plan to curtail the country's installed steel production capacity by a further 150 million tons over the next five years. In recent years the steel price has dropped significantly due to the global oversupply, mainly originating from the chronic steel oversupply in China where domestic demand declined amid the nation's economic slowdown.

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With Indonesia's construction and infrastructure sectors expected to grow in 2016, backed by government support, Indonesia-based steel pipe manufacturer Steel Pipe Industry of Indonesia should manage to see higher net profit this year. The company, with its factories in Sidoarjo and Surabaya (East Java), has the largest steel pipe production capacity of all steel pipe producers in Indonesia. With its six factories - and 34 production lines - the company's production capacity currently stands at 588,600 metric tons per year.

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The Indonesian government approved the request of Indonesia's automotive sector to be exempted from the anti-dumping duties that have been imposed on imports of steel from specific countries. Through Finance Ministry Regulation No. 65/2013 on Anti-Import Duties, the government set import duties - ranging between 7 and 55.6 percent - for steel imports from China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Vietnam in an effort to protect the domestic steel manufacturing industry amid a global steel oversupply (particularly caused by a supply glut in China).

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Domestic steel sales in Indonesia are expected to rise 6 percent y/y to 15.1 million tons in 2014. Meanwhile, the global average steel price has been USD $536 per ton this year, implying that the market value of Indonesian steel sales is to reach USD $8 billion this year. In recent years, the country’s steel sales have been rising on development of infrastructure, defense industry, and manufacturing. The sales are expected to continue rising in the years ahead due to commitment of the government to boost infrastructure development.

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