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Indonesia experienced its largest ever monthly trade deficit in April 2019. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), which were released on Wednesday (15.05.2019), Southeast Asia's largest economy recorded a USD $2.50 billion trade deficit.
It was a welcome surprise to see Indonesia recording a trade surplus of USD $540.2 million in March 2019, extending the monthly trade surplus to two (straight) months, which is something we had not seen in more than a year. However, when we take a look at the first quarter of 2019, then Indonesia’s overall trade balance still shows a deficit of USD $193.4 million.
Indonesia’s current account deficit widened to USD $31.1 billion, equivalent to 2.98 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), in full-year 2018. It is a big deterioration compared to the USD $17.29 billion deficit (1.7 percent of GDP) in the preceding year. It means the current account balance remains the Achilles’ heel of the Indonesian economy, one that – potentially - triggers rapid and large capital outflows in times of global economic turmoil.
Indonesia’s current account deficit widened to USD $31.1 billion, equivalent to 2.98 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), in full-year 2018. It is a big deterioration compared to the USD $17.29 billion deficit (1.7 percent of GDP) in the preceding year. It means the current account balance remains the Achilles’ heel of the Indonesian economy, one that - potentially - triggers rapid and large capital outflows in times of global economic turmoil.
Concern about Indonesia's Q4-2018 current account deficit as well as the value of the rupiah exchange rate should increase now the country posted a big USD $2.05 billion monthly trade deficit in November 2018. It is the highest monthly trade deficit for Southeast Asia's largest economy since July 2013.
On Sunday 16 December 2018 Indonesia and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which consists of non-EU member countries Switzerland, Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland, signed the Indonesia-EFTA Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA). The signing ceremony, which was held in Indonesia’s capital city of Jakarta, effectively ends nearly eight years of negotiations between both sides.
Indonesia’s current account deficit is expected to widen to the range of 3.30 – 3.40 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of 2018, above the 3.0 percent of GDP threshold that is usually considered to separate a sustainable from an unsustainable deficit.
Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati does not expect to see a change in Indonesia's current account deficit in the third quarter of 2018 as government efforts to curtail the deficit have only been started in September, while the July and August trade balances showed significant deficits.
Those who enjoy shopping for foreign products - for example online - that need to be imported into Indonesia will possibly have to face higher prices starting from 10 October 2018 as the Indonesian government decided to lower the import duty exemption ceiling from USD $100 to USD $75 per day, per buyer.
The Indonesian government is planning to impose measures in order to curtail imports into Indonesia (in an effort to improve the trade balance, current account balance, and strengthen the rupiah exchange rate). One measure that is currently being prepared by the Finance Ministry is higher import tariffs for certain goods. Another measure that is being studied is reducing the number of entrance points for imports.
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On 5 May 2023, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released the latest official Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data of Indonesia. BPS announced that the Indonesian economy expanded by 5.03 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q1-2023, a good result that is in line with our expectations.
Last month we warned that Indonesia’s trade performance could easily continue to contract in February 2023, thereby continuing the trend we have seen since August 2022. Moreover, February is a short month, and therefore it typically has trouble to compete with other months in terms of trade activity.
Both Indonesia’s export and import performance was quite amazing in March 2022. While we expected imports to rebound ahead of the start of the Ramadan month (on 1 April 2022), a month that typically gives rise to a big increase in consumption, we did underestimate Indonesia’s export performance in last month’s forecast.
In January 2022 Indonesian Minister for Coordinating Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said the Indonesian government aims to ratify the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement in the first quarter of 2022. Just like the Philippines and Myanmar, Indonesia is still to ratify the RCEP even though this agreement already took effect per 1 January 2022.
According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), Indonesia posted a USD $4.37 billion trade surplus in September 2021. It is a slightly lower surplus compared to the previous month (when Indonesia posted its highest ever monthly trade surplus), but remains one of the highest surpluses in the history of Indonesia.
Indonesia recorded another big trade surplus in July 2020. Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), the country's trade surplus reached USD $3.26 billion in July 2020, a huge improvement from the USD $280.1 million deficit it recorded in the same month one year earlier.
For the second consecutive month Indonesia recorded a big trade surplus. According to the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), the country posted a USD $1.27 billion trade surplus in June 2020.
In line with estimates, Indonesia’s trade balance showed another deficit in January 2020. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), a USD $864.2 million trade deficit was recorded in the first month of the year.
E-commerce – which refers to the activity of electronically buying (or selling) products through online services or over the Internet – has been developing rapidly in Indonesia over the past decade. More and more Indonesians have started to shop online, forcing many offline retail players to adapt and innovate their business models in order to survive in this new and challenging environment where two newcomers, both tech startups and both e-commerce platforms, have developed into a unicorn (Tokopedia and Bukalapak) which is a startup that is valued above USD $1 billion.
While many are relieved to see a trade surplus for Indonesia in August 2019, the picture does not look too positive when we delve a bit deeper in the data, and shows that global conditions are far from positive amid contracting international trade and subdued global economic growth (with ongoing tariff tensions between the United States and China being a key issue).
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