Only about one hour before the controversial new Mining Law No.4/2009 would take effect on early Sunday morning (12/01), President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono signed a regulation that eases the impact of the new law. The aim of Mining Law No.4/2009 is to ban the export of certain unprocessed minerals (including concentrates) but the new regulation that was signed on Saturday evening (11/01) stipulates that concentrates can still be exported for the next three years, while exports of ore are prohibited since Sunday morning.

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Today (11/01), the government of Indonesia will announce its decision regarding the ban on exports of unrefined mineral ore. This ban, set in the controversial Mining Law No.4/2009, should become effective starting from Sunday 12 January 2014 unless the government will decide to delay full implementation. Industry Minister MS Hidayat stated that the government is still debating about the matter. The new law is controversial because it hollows regulatory certainty, miners's profitability and leads to increased unemployment.

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Indonesia's controversial Mining Law No.4/2009, which puts a ban on exports of unprocessed minerals from Southeast Asia's largest economy, is not expected to be implemented in full force on 12 January 2014 as the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources now proposes more flexibility for miners. Sukhyar, General Director of Coal and Minerals at the Ministry, said that the proposal would imply a continuation of the export of concentrate or minerals that have been processed to a certain degree until 2017.

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Indonesia's state news agency Antara reported that the government may review its Mining Law No.4/2009 which stipulates a ban on the export of raw minerals. This controversial new law, through which the government aims to raise more value-added revenues, caused a shockwave across Indonesia's mining sector because a significant amount of mineral exports constitute unprocessed ones. The law, which is set to be implemented on 12 January 2014, implies that minerals need to be processed domestically first before exports are allowed.

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Although Indonesia continues with its plan to ban the export of raw minerals from 2014 onward as stipulated by the 2009 Mining Law, the government is studying the possibility to exempt companies temporarily from this rule if they show serious intentions to build processing factories or smelters in Indonesia in order to produce value-added products. Indonesia is still mainly a raw commodity-exporting country and thus misses out on value-added revenue while being more susceptible to volatility in commodity prices on the global market.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) believes that Indonesia's recently introduced ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, in effect since 12 January 2014, will result in slowing economic growth in several regions in the eastern part of Indonesia as these regions are main sources of mineral production. Doddy Zulverdi, Head of the Economic Assessment Group in Bank Indonesia's Department of Economic and Monetary Policy, said that Sulawesi and Kalimantan will post slowing economic growth this year.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS), a non-departmental government institute, expects that Indonesia's trade balance will post a deficit of around USD $4 billion in 2014. The key question is whether increased manufacturing and agricultural exports can replace reduced raw mineral exports. The forecast of BPS is approximately similar to the country's trade deficit in 2013. Last year, Southeast Asia's largest economy recorded a deficit of USD $4.06 billion as the total value of exports amounted to USD $182.57 billion, while imports reached USD $186.63 billion.

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On Sunday (12/01), one of the most important new laws in the recent history of Indonesia came in force. Mining Law Nr.4/2009, which prohibits the export of unprocessed minerals from Southeast Asia's largest economy, was implemented. However, it was not implemented in its original form. The president of Indonesia, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, signed a last-minute regulation which softens the impact of the new law by allowing mining companies to continue exports of copper, manganese, zinc, lead and iron ore concentrate until 2017.

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Indonesia's ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, which is scheduled to take effect on 12 January 2014, is expected to lead to a temporary slowdown of Indonesia's total exports and thus will put more pressure on the country's current account deficit. Despite two consecutive months with trade surpluses (October and November 2013), Indonesia's wide current account deficit is still a concern to investors as well as the government although the deficit has shown an easing trend in recent quarters.

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After having reported yesterday (26/12) that Indonesia's ban on the export of unprocessed minerals, stipulated in Mining Law No.4/2009 (which is set to become in force from 12 January 2014), may be delayed, more and more signs are pointing towards a postponement of this law. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources, Jero Wacik, said that the government is considering to delay the implementation of the law by two or three years as the ban will cause increased unemployment and the cease of mining operations.

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The price of cacao has risen by almost 20 percent since the start of June 2013 and is now around its highest level of 2013. Moreover, the cacao price is expected to keep increasing as analysts foresee a shortage of the commodity on the global market for the next two years. Indonesia, the world's third-largest cacao producer, is considering to lower the import duty for cacao to meet rising demand of its domestic cacao processing industry (amid limited growth in cacao production). Currently, the country levies a 5 percent import duty on cacao.

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