Indonesia's Regional Representatives Council speaker Irman Gusman will be removed from his position on Tuesday (20/09) after being named a suspect by the nation's anti-corruption watchdog (Corruption Eradication Commission, or KPK) in Indonesia's latest corruption case. Allegedly, Gusman accepted a IDR 100 million (approx. USD $7,500) bribe for lobbying to manipulate West Sumatra's sugar import quota. Earlier this year State Procurement Agency Bulog imposed the quota to a company called CVSB. It is yet another graft case related to Indonesia's import quota system for food commodities.

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A survey, conducted by Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia, BI), indicates that Indonesian inflation has risen 0.59 percent in the first week of June 2016, implying that there is a big chance that inflation will reach beyond the 1 percent (m/m) level in the full-month, perhaps even touching 2 percent (m/m). The main cause of inflationary pressures in Indonesia in this month is food prices. Amid Ramadan festivities - which boost demand for food items - prices of beef, chicken meat, cooking oil, eggs, onions, and chilies have risen.

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Indonesia's Business Competition Supervisory Commission (KPPU) penalized 32 Indonesian cattle importer and beef feedlot companies with a combined IDR 107 billion (approx. USD $8.1 million) in fines on grounds of the practice of unfair competition. These 32 companies have been found guilty of forming a cartel with the aim of controlling local beef prices, curtailing beef imports, and curtailing the distribution of beef at the expense of the Indonesian consumer, particularly in the Greater Jakarta area.

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Indonesia's inflation is expected to accelerate in January 2016 according to the country's central bank (Bank Indonesia). Bank Indonesia detected a spike in prices of several food commodities - such as shallots, chili, and beef - at the start of the year. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo told reporters that he expects the country's inflation rate to rise by around 0.75 percent month-on-month (m/m) in January. This would imply that inflation will accelerate to 4.38 percent on an annual basis (from 3.35 percent y/y in December 2015).

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The Indonesian Cattle and Buffalo Farmers Union (PPSKI) is pessimistic that Indonesia can achieve self-sufficiency in beef in either 2016 or 2017 despite the Indonesian government’s renewed push for self-sufficiency in various commodities, including beef. Self-sufficiency in beef is defined by the PPSKI as needing to import less than 10 percent of the nation’s total beef demand. However, with Indonesia’s beef demand estimated at more than 3.8 million (of live cattle) in 2016, while the country’s government news agency Antara said Indonesia is to import up to 600,000 live cattle this year, it implies that nearly 16 percent of domestic beef demand is imported.

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The government of Indonesia is still busy preparing the policy package that was announced last week by Chief Economics Minister Darmin Nasution. Earlier it was reported that this stimulus package, expected to be finalized this month, involves deregulation and tax holidays designed to boost economic activity in Indonesia as well as to attract foreign currency inflows. The government will also look at how it can provide incentives to accelerate smelter development in Southeast Asia’s largest economy.

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Contrary to what most analysts expected, Indonesia experienced deflation of 0.35 percent in September 2013. The figure was released today (01/10) by Statistics Indonesia. Deflation was particularly triggered by easing food prices (including onions, peppers, beef, fresh fish and carrot) and lower tariffs for air and train transportation as well as inter-city transport fares. Previously, it was expected that Indonesia would record low inflation (less than 1 percent) in September. Year-on-year inflation eased to 8.40 percent (from 8.79 in August).

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Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia) expects that Indonesia's inflation rate in August will reach about 1.3 percent (month to month), implying that the annual inflation rate will exceed 8.9 percent (year on year) in the same month. Prices of several commodities and horticultural products are still not showing a decrease in prices. These products include beef, chicken meat and onions. Thus, Bank Indonesia requests that the central and regional governments take great care in safeguarding the country's food supplies.

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Prices of certain food products in Indonesia have risen steeply during the first week of Ramadan, the Islamic fasting month. Higher prices are a sensitive issue at the moment as the country is fighting higher inflation after subsidized fuel prices were increased in June. Therefore, the central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 bps to 6.50 percent last week. If inflation exceeds 2.3 percent in July (month to month) then it might result in another upward revision of the interest rate, thus slowing down Indonesia's economic growth.

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The holy fasting month of Ramadan, the ninth month of the Islamic calender, and subsequent Idul Fitri (or Lebaran) festivities, when many Indonesians go back to their home towns for several days, will arrive soon (on or around 9 July 2013). This annual recurring tradition has some big economic implications as Indonesia's Muslim community increases spending prior and during this period to buy new clothes, shoes, food and drinks as well as transportation fares to travel back to their places of birth.

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With the Ramadan month just having started, it is important to take a look at food prices in Indonesia. The Ramadan-Idul Fitri period is typically a period when prices rise amid a significant increase in demand.

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Over the past couple of years there have been many reports about Indonesia's beef mafia (referring to certain cartel practices in the nation's beef industry; practices that come at the expense of the Indonesian consumer as prices are kept high intentionally). A new report published on Beef Central on Monday (10/04) discusses why beef prices have not become more affordable for Indonesian consumers despite the government allowing imports of cheap frozen buffalo meat in mid-2016.

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Inflationary pressures eased in September 2013 to a 0.35% rate of deflation (mtm), or 8.40% (yoy). The rate of deflation exceeded the projections contained within the Price Monitoring Survey conducted by Bank Indonesia and much lower than inflation expectations by some analysts. Abundant supply in the wake of horticultural harvests (shallots and chilli peppers), triggered a deep correction in food prices. In addition, sliding beef prices also exacerbated further deflationary pressures, with volatile foods recording deflation of 3.38% (mtm).

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