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Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), which were released on 16 November 2020, Indonesia recorded an impressive USD $3.61 billion trade surplus in October 2020. The surplus is at a level we had not seen since the final stages of the 2000s commodities boom (late-2011 to be exact).
Indonesia recorded a big trade surplus in May 2020. Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), the country posted a trade surplus worth USD $2.09 billion in May 2020, one of the highest monthly surpluses in recent years. But is it reason to become excited?
After two months of trade surpluses in February and March 2020, Indonesia’s trade balance swung back to a deficit in the following month. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia experienced a USD $344.7 million trade deficit in April 2020.
Last month we basically came to the conclusion that the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis has a direct (short-term) positive effect on Indonesia’s trade performance (although the longer term consequences are clearly negative) as Indonesia managed to boost exports (possibly because it filled the gap left by China’s lockdown), while imports into Indonesia fell markedly (partly because of the lower need for inputs for export-oriented output), thus leading to a comfortable trade surplus.
Amid the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) crisis, Indonesia managed to post a strong trade surplus in February 2020. Based on the latest data released by Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesia recorded a USD $2.33 trade surplus. It was the largest monthly trade surplus for Southeast Asia’s largest economy since September 2011.
The trade balance of Indonesia showed a relatively small deficit in the last month of 2019. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), a USD $28.2 million trade deficit was recorded in December 2019, much smaller than analysts had predicted.
Indonesia’s trade balance swung back into a surplus in October 2019. Statistics Indonesia (BPS), which released the country’s latest trade data on 15 November 2019, reported a USD $161 million trade surplus for Indonesia in October. It is an improvement from the USD $164 million trade deficit the country had experienced in the preceding month, and a huge improvement from the USD $1.76 billion trade deficit in the same month one year earlier (October 2018).
Indonesia’s trade balance swung back into a deficit in July 2019 as the country’s exports could not compensate for its imports. However, at USD $63 million, the monthly deficit is not too big (compared to the USD $2.3 billion and USD $1.1 billion deficits that were recorded in April and January, respectively).
After the massive USD $2.29 billion trade deficit in April 2019 (which was the biggest monthly trade deficit in six years), Indonesia managed to turn the balance into a USD $206.7 million surplus in May 2019. Albeit small, Indonesian policymakers must have been relieved seeing the surplus as previously there were mixed opinions whether Indonesia would record a surplus or deficit in May.
On 11 June 2019, Indonesian Trade Minister Enggartiasto Lukita met Chilean Vice-Minister of Trade Rodrigo Yanez Benitez to exchange an instrument of ratification of the Indonesia-Chile Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (IC-CEPA). The IC-CEPA, Indonesia’s first trade agreement with a Latin American country, is set to come into effect on 10 August 2019.
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On 5 May 2023, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released the latest official Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data of Indonesia. BPS announced that the Indonesian economy expanded by 5.03 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q1-2023, a good result that is in line with our expectations.
Last month we warned that Indonesia’s trade performance could easily continue to contract in February 2023, thereby continuing the trend we have seen since August 2022. Moreover, February is a short month, and therefore it typically has trouble to compete with other months in terms of trade activity.
Both Indonesia’s export and import performance was quite amazing in March 2022. While we expected imports to rebound ahead of the start of the Ramadan month (on 1 April 2022), a month that typically gives rise to a big increase in consumption, we did underestimate Indonesia’s export performance in last month’s forecast.
In January 2022 Indonesian Minister for Coordinating Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said the Indonesian government aims to ratify the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement in the first quarter of 2022. Just like the Philippines and Myanmar, Indonesia is still to ratify the RCEP even though this agreement already took effect per 1 January 2022.
According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), Indonesia posted a USD $4.37 billion trade surplus in September 2021. It is a slightly lower surplus compared to the previous month (when Indonesia posted its highest ever monthly trade surplus), but remains one of the highest surpluses in the history of Indonesia.
Indonesia recorded another big trade surplus in July 2020. Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), the country's trade surplus reached USD $3.26 billion in July 2020, a huge improvement from the USD $280.1 million deficit it recorded in the same month one year earlier.
For the second consecutive month Indonesia recorded a big trade surplus. According to the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), the country posted a USD $1.27 billion trade surplus in June 2020.
In line with estimates, Indonesia’s trade balance showed another deficit in January 2020. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), a USD $864.2 million trade deficit was recorded in the first month of the year.
E-commerce – which refers to the activity of electronically buying (or selling) products through online services or over the Internet – has been developing rapidly in Indonesia over the past decade. More and more Indonesians have started to shop online, forcing many offline retail players to adapt and innovate their business models in order to survive in this new and challenging environment where two newcomers, both tech startups and both e-commerce platforms, have developed into a unicorn (Tokopedia and Bukalapak) which is a startup that is valued above USD $1 billion.
While many are relieved to see a trade surplus for Indonesia in August 2019, the picture does not look too positive when we delve a bit deeper in the data, and shows that global conditions are far from positive amid contracting international trade and subdued global economic growth (with ongoing tariff tensions between the United States and China being a key issue).
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