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Berita Hari Ini Export
As expected, Indonesia’s export performance was heavily disrupted by the palm oil export ban (that was imposed by the Indonesian government between 28 April and 23 May 2022 to stabilize the domestic cooking oil prices). Compared to the previous month, exports of animal/vegetable fats and oils (which include palm oil products) tumbled by a whopping USD $2.1 billion in May 2022.
The Statistical Agency of Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released Indonesia’s Q1-2022 gross domestic product (GDP) data on 9 May 2022. Based on its calculation the Indonesian economy expanded 5.01 percent year-on-year (y/y), which is in fact better –albeit very modestly– than our projection that was set at 5.0 percent (y/y).
Last month when we discussed the impressive December 2021 trade performance of Indonesia (when its exports remained strong at near-record high territory, while imports soared to a record high), we ended our article with several ‘things’ to watch:
On 17 January 2022 Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released the latest trade data of Indonesia. The data show that Indonesian exports remained high (near record-high territory) in December 2021, while imports into Indonesia even managed to set a new all-time record (with a huge jump in imports of raw materials and consumer goods suggesting that economic activity is strong, although this could be a temporary phenomenon in the context of Christmas and New Year festivities).
Indonesia’s October 2021 export performance was impressive. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS), Indonesia exported USD $22.03 billion worth of goods in October 2021, thereby setting a new all-time record high.
On Friday 5 November 2021 Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS) released the official Q3-2021 gross domestic product (GDP) data for Indonesia. While we had predicted a mediocre performance (based on the country’s lackluster retail sales, consumer confidence, credit growth and low inflation in this year’s third quarter), the figure was still below our forecast.
Indonesia’s August 2021 trade balance was quite spectacular with the value of the country’s exports totaling USD $21.42 billion, the highest export figure in ten years.
As expected, the trade balance of Indonesia showed a widening surplus in July 2021. According to the latest data that were released by Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (in Indonesian: Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), the country’s trade surplus reached USD $2.59 billion in July 2021, nearly doubling from the trade surplus one month earlier.
Before we delve into Indonesia’s June 2021 trade statistics, we first take a quick look at Indonesia’s full-year 2020 trade performance as Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released its annual ‘Indonesian Foreign Trade Statistics – 2020’ report in the first week of July 2021.
While Indonesia Investments predicted the decline in imports into Indonesia in May 2021 – after Ramadan and Idul Fitri momentum had passed – we were surprised to see a significant drop in the country’s exports that same month.
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On 5 May 2023, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, BPS) released the latest official Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data of Indonesia. BPS announced that the Indonesian economy expanded by 5.03 percent year-on-year (y/y) in Q1-2023, a good result that is in line with our expectations.
Last month we warned that Indonesia’s trade performance could easily continue to contract in February 2023, thereby continuing the trend we have seen since August 2022. Moreover, February is a short month, and therefore it typically has trouble to compete with other months in terms of trade activity.
Over the past couple of months we have informed on the shortage of cooking oil on the Indonesian market, the subsequent inflationary pressures this shortage caused, and the policies that were imposed by the government to tackle this shortage. But, we did not devote an entire article to this topic.
Both Indonesia’s export and import performance was quite amazing in March 2022. While we expected imports to rebound ahead of the start of the Ramadan month (on 1 April 2022), a month that typically gives rise to a big increase in consumption, we did underestimate Indonesia’s export performance in last month’s forecast.
On 7 February 2022, Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS) announced the latest gross domestic product (GDP) data of Indonesia, covering the final quarter of 2021.
In January 2022 Indonesian Minister for Coordinating Economic Affairs Airlangga Hartarto said the Indonesian government aims to ratify the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) trade agreement in the first quarter of 2022. Just like the Philippines and Myanmar, Indonesia is still to ratify the RCEP even though this agreement already took effect per 1 January 2022.
According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), Indonesia posted a USD $4.37 billion trade surplus in September 2021. It is a slightly lower surplus compared to the previous month (when Indonesia posted its highest ever monthly trade surplus), but remains one of the highest surpluses in the history of Indonesia.
Indonesia recorded another big trade surplus in July 2020. Based on the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), the country's trade surplus reached USD $3.26 billion in July 2020, a huge improvement from the USD $280.1 million deficit it recorded in the same month one year earlier.
For the second consecutive month Indonesia recorded a big trade surplus. According to the latest data from Indonesia’s Statistical Agency (BPS), the country posted a USD $1.27 billion trade surplus in June 2020.
In line with estimates, Indonesia’s trade balance showed another deficit in January 2020. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (Badan Pusat Statistik, or BPS), a USD $864.2 million trade deficit was recorded in the first month of the year.
