Inflation in Indonesia accelerated to 3.58 percent year-on-year (y/y) in November 2016, from 3.31 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Acceleration of Indonesian inflation last month was faster than expected, with estimates averaging 3.43 percent (y/y). On a month-on-month (m/m) basis inflation rose by 0.47 percent in November. Indonesia's Statistics Agency (BPS) announced the country's latest inflation data just before noon on Thursday (01/12).

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced that inflation in Indonesia was recorded at 0.14 percent month-on-month (m/m) in October 2016, slightly higher than had been expected by analysts but lower compared to the 0.22 percent (m/m) of inflation that was reported in the preceding month. Meanwhile, on an annual basis (y/y), Indonesia's inflation rate accelerated to a seasonally adjusted 3.31 percent (y/y) in October, from 3.07 percent (y/y) in the preceding month.

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Indonesia's consumer price index (CPI) expanded 3.07 percent year-on-year (y/y) in September, up from the 2.79 percent (y/y) pace in the preceding month but remaining at a comfortably low level (for Indonesian standards). According to data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), released earlier this morning (03/10), Indonesia's monthly inflation rate was 0.22 percent in September 2016, roughly in line with analysts' forecasts and the low inflation environment could be a reason for the central bank to cut its key interest rates again later this year.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) stated that up to the third week of August deflation reached 0.06 percent month-to-month (m/m). Juda Agung, Executive Director at Bank Indonesia's Economic and Monetary Policy Department, said consumer demand has diminished after previously peaking during the Islamic Ramadan and Idul Fitri celebrations in June and July. Usually the month of August sees inflationary pressures (caused by the new school year). This year, however, it may be the first time in many years that August brings deflation.

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Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced on Monday (01/08) that Indonesia's inflation rate reached 0.69 percent (m/m) in July 2016, considerably below analysts' forecasts. In fact, the 0.69 percent (m/m) pace is Indonesia's lowest July inflation rate since 2012. On a year-on-year basis, Indonesian inflation eased to a seasonally adjusted 3.21 percent (y/y), from 3.45 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Meanwhile, Indonesia's manufacturing activity plunged unexpectedly in July.

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Inflation in Indonesia accelerated slightly more than expected last month. According to the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), inflation reached 3.45 percent (y/y) in June 2016, up from 3.33 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Initially, Indonesia's monthly inflation pace in June was forecast above 1 percent. However, over the past week estimates were cut to around 0.55 percent (m/m) as food prices were largely under control (even though prices of some staple foods - such as chicken meat and eggs - were still rising).

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A survey, conducted by Indonesia's central bank (Bank Indonesia, BI), indicates that Indonesian inflation has risen 0.59 percent in the first week of June 2016, implying that there is a big chance that inflation will reach beyond the 1 percent (m/m) level in the full-month, perhaps even touching 2 percent (m/m). The main cause of inflationary pressures in Indonesia in this month is food prices. Amid Ramadan festivities - which boost demand for food items - prices of beef, chicken meat, cooking oil, eggs, onions, and chilies have risen.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) sees easing pressures in the global economy in May 2016, reflected by the rising crude oil price. On Thursday (26/05), crude futures exceeded the USD $50 per barrel level for the first time since November 2015 (supported by production disruptions in Canada). Although oil futures declined again the following day on profit taking, the rising trend has persisted. In early 2016 crude oil traded below USD $30 a barrel, plunging some 21 months due to the global supply glut and weak global economic growth.

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Inflation is under control in Indonesia. Based on the latest data from Statistics Indonesia (BPS), Indonesian inflation eased to 3.60 percent (y/y) in April 2016, well within the target range of the nation's central bank and central government. However, inflationary pressures in Southeast Asia's largest economy may rise in the second half of the year because there is a big chance that the El Nino weather phenomenon is to be followed by the La Nina weather phenomenon. Both weather phenomenons impact heavily on Indonesia's agricultural output.

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Indonesia's April deflation of 0.45 percent month-to-month (m/m) was slightly higher than estimated (the general consensus among analysts was 0.29 percent m/m deflation in April 2016). Traditionally, Indonesia experiences deflation in April as food prices ease due to the harvest season. This year, however, deflationary pressure was higher than usual as, per 1 April 2016, Indonesia's premium gasoline and diesel fuel prices were cut by IDR 500 (approx. USD $0.04) per liter, thus curtailing transportation costs. Indonesia's annual inflation rate now stands at 3.60 percent (y/y).

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With the Ramadan month just having started, it is important to take a look at food prices in Indonesia. The Ramadan-Idul Fitri period is typically a period when prices rise amid a significant increase in demand.

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On Monday 1 July 2019 Statistics Indonesia (BPS) released Indonesia’s latest inflation data. The data show that headline inflation in Southeast Asia’s largest economy eased to a level of 0.55 percent month-on-month (m/m) in June 2019, down from 0.68 percent (m/m) in May 2019 when price pressures peaked due to Ramadan and Lebaran celebrations. This period always gives rise to a significant boost in consumption, hence prices of foodstuffs peak. Meanwhile, people also tend to buy new clothes, bags and shoes because they want to look good at these celebrations.

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Bank Indonesia is content seeing Indonesia's inflation pace at a rather mild rate of 0.22 percent month-on-month (m/m) in July 2017. Dody Budi Waluyo, Executive Director of Economic and Monetary Policy at the central bank, said low and stable inflation is a positive asset for the economy as it supports the rupiah exchange rate as well as the investment climate and safeguards people's purchasing power.

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It is highly unlikely to see the continuation of deflation in April. Last month (March 2017) Indonesia recorded 0.02 percent of deflation, primarily on the back of easing food prices amid the big harvest season. This harvest season will continue into April and therefore we expect few (to none) inflationary pressures stemming from food products. However, administered price adjustments (specifically another round of higher electricity tariffs in March) will impact of April's inflation figure, while consumer prices may also start to feel the impact of the approaching Ramadan month.

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In line with expectations, Indonesia's inflation rate eased to 2.79 percent year-on-year (y/y) in August 2016, from 3.21 percent (y/y) in the preceding month. Consumer price inflation in Indonesia fell on the back of declining prices after the Islamic celebrations of Ramadan and Idul Fitri ended in July. On a monthly basis, Indonesia recorded deflation of 0.02 percent (m/m) in August. Meanwhile, the manufacturing sector of Indonesia turned positive again.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects Indonesia's inflation to reach slightly below 1 percent month-to-month (m/m) in July 2016. According to central bank surveys, Indonesia's inflation accelerated in the first and second week of July by 1.18 percent (m/m) and 1.25 percent (m/m), respectively. Juda Agung, Executive Director of Bank Indonesia's Economic and Monetary Policy Department, said inflation tends to peak ahead of - and during - the Idul Fitri holiday (4-8 July) but is set to ease in the third and fourth week.

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The first day of the month - in case of a working day - implies that investors can count on the release of several macroeconomic data from Indonesia, specifically inflation and manufacturing activity. Statistics Indonesia (BPS) announced this morning (01/06) that Indonesia's consumer inflation reached 0.24 percent (m/m), or 3.33 percent (y/y), in May 2016. Meanwhile, the Nikkei Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) eased to a reading of 50.6 in May from 50.9 one month earlier. Lets take a closer look at these data.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects to see deflation in April 2016 on the back of controlled food prices as the harvest season has arrived. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said a central bank survey shows deflation of 0.33 percent month-to-month (m/m) during the first three weeks of April. Besides lower food prices, Martowardojo also attributes April deflation to the government's decision to cut fuel prices (premium gasoline and diesel) by IDR 500 (approx. USD $0.04) per liter per 1 April. This move led to a 4 percent drop in public transportation tariffs.

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The central bank of Indonesia (Bank Indonesia) expects to see deflation at 0.15 percent month-to-month (m/m) in February 2016. Bank Indonesia Governor Agus Martowardojo said lower (government) administered prices in combination with low core inflation will be the recipe for deflation in the second month of the year. The lower administered prices that are primarily the cause of deflation consist of fuel prices, air fares and 12-kilogram liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) canisters. In the first month of the year Indonesian inflation accelerated to 4.14 percent (y/y).

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After having experienced two consecutive months of deflation in September and October, Indonesia is expected to see inflation again in November, primarily on higher food prices (chicken meat and rice). Agus Martowardojo, Governor of Bank Indonesia, expects an inflation rate of 0.2 percent (month-on-month) in November. This would mean that inflation in full-year 2015 is likely to reach 3 percent (y/y), in line with earlier estimates and within - or perhaps slightly below - Bank Indonesia's target range of 3 - 5 percent (y/y) of inflation in 2015.

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